Mexico

Where Mexico Stands in 2026

Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) reported average liquid hydrocarbon production of 1,658 thousand barrels per day (Mbd) in the second quarter of 2026, according to its results communiqué 69/2026 filed on July 31, 2026 (checked October 2026). Total hydrocarbon output, which adds natural gas converted to oil-equivalent terms, averaged 2,447 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, 4.6% above the same quarter of 2025. Pemex credited the Ixachi, Bakté, Itta, Koban and Maloob fields for supporting liquids output.

A year earlier, in its communiqué 25/2025 of July 28, 2025, Pemex reported liquids of 1,638 Mbd for the second quarter of 2025, including partner production, after 1.61 million b/d in the first quarter. So the 2025 to 2026 picture is a production level that has stopped falling quickly and is edging up, at roughly half of what Mexico produced two decades ago. The rest of this page explains how the country got there and why its trade with the United States now matters more than its crude exports.

The Cantarell Arc: How One Field Shaped National Output

Mexico's modern production history is dominated by a single offshore complex in the Bay of Campeche. EIA figures from its 2015 Mexico country analysis (checked October 2026) trace the arc:

Measure	Value	Year
Cantarell crude output at peak	2.1 million b/d	2004
Cantarell share of Mexican crude	63%	2004
Cantarell crude output	322,000 b/d (about 85% below peak)	2014
Cantarell share of Mexican crude	13%	2014
Ku-Maloob-Zaap (KMZ) crude output	864,000 b/d, nearly triple its 2004 level	2013
Mexico total oil production versus its peak	Down 27%	2004 to 2014
U.S. crude imports from Mexico at peak	1.6 million b/d	2004

The table tells a clear story. In 2004, almost two of every three barrels of Mexican crude came from one field. A decade later Cantarell supplied about one in eight. KMZ, next door, absorbed much of the slack using a nitrogen reinjection programme similar to the one Pemex had applied at Cantarell, and became the country's most prolific field. But KMZ's growth could not fully replace Cantarell's decline, so national output fell.

Worked example: what the shares imply

The EIA's share figures let a reader estimate total Mexican crude output in each year without a separate table:

• 2004: 2.1 million b/d ÷ 0.63 = about 3.3 million b/d of crude.
• 2014: 0.322 million b/d ÷ 0.13 = about 2.5 million b/d of crude.

Those implied totals are consistent with the EIA's statement that crude oil accounted for 2.4 million b/d in 2014 and that total oil production had fallen 27% from the 2004 peak. Comparing the 2004 estimate with Pemex's reported 2026 liquids of about 1.66 million b/d shows output roughly halved over two decades. The arithmetic is approximate, because share figures are rounded, but it is a quick check that headline numbers from different sources fit together.

Where the Oil Is Produced Now

The EIA's 2015 analysis described roughly three-quarters of Mexico's crude coming from offshore fields in the Bay of Campeche, off the states of Campeche and Tabasco, with KMZ and Cantarell producing most of the heavy crude marketed as the Maya blend and fields offshore Tabasco producing lighter grades. Other complexes illustrate the age of the base: Abkatun-Pol-Chuc, which produced more than 700,000 b/d in the mid-1990s, averaged less than 300,000 b/d in 2014, while the Litoral de Tabasco complex rose from under 200,000 b/d in 2008 to 320,000 b/d in 2014.

Pemex's 2026 communiqué names a different set of fields as the support for current output. Maloob is part of the KMZ complex; the others are not among the fields the EIA highlighted a decade earlier. The shift in names is the point: national production now depends on a portfolio of smaller and newer fields offsetting decline at the old giants, rather than on one or two super-giants.

Era	Main supply source	What the data show
Early 2000s	Cantarell	63% of crude in 2004 (EIA)
2005 to 2014	KMZ replacing Cantarell	KMZ 864,000 b/d by 2013; Cantarell 13% of crude by 2014 (EIA)
2025 to 2026	Mixed portfolio of newer onshore and offshore fields with KMZ	Liquids 1.61 to 1.66 million b/d by quarter (Pemex)

The Refining Pivot

For decades Mexico exported crude to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners and imported gasoline and diesel back across the border. The EIA's 2015 analysis counted six domestic refineries, all operated by Pemex, with total capacity of 1.54 million b/d at the end of 2014, and noted that Pemex then controlled 50% of the 334,000 b/d Deer Park refinery in Texas. It also recorded that Mexico was the destination for 44% of U.S. motor gasoline exports in 2014.

Government policy since 2018 has tried to reverse that pattern by running more Mexican crude through Mexican refineries, including the new Olmeca refinery at Dos Bocas, Tabasco. Pemex's own figures show the effect:

Quarter	Crude processed (Mbd)	Refined products output (Mbd)	Notes from Pemex
Q2 2025	987	1,034	Up 5.4% on Q1 2025, with two trains operating at Olmeca; 61.5% of products were gasoline, diesel and jet fuel
Q2 2026	Up 2.9% year on year	Up 3.4% year on year	Pemex attributes higher runs to industrial transformation gains

Sources: Pemex communiqués 25/2025 and 69/2026.

Applying the Q2 2026 growth rate to the Q2 2025 base gives crude runs of roughly 1.02 million b/d, a PetroEyes estimate rather than a published figure. Set against liquids output of about 1.66 million b/d, that means well over half of Mexico's liquids production is now processed at home, a large change from the export-led model the EIA described in 2015.

The Trade Balance With the United States

The clearest way to see Mexico's current position is through U.S. trade data, which the EIA publishes by country.

Flow (EIA, thousand b/d)	2024	2025
U.S. crude imports from Mexico	464	383
U.S. exports of crude and products to Mexico	1,173	1,084

Sources: EIA U.S. imports by country of origin and U.S. exports by destination, annual (checked October 2026).

Two things stand out. First, U.S. imports of Mexican crude fell 17% in a single year, to 383,000 b/d, and are now less than a quarter of their 2004 peak of 1.6 million b/d. More of Mexico's crude is being refined at home and less is left for export. Second, the oil trade between the two countries runs heavily southward. In 2025 the United States shipped about 1.08 million b/d of crude and petroleum products to Mexico, almost three times what it bought. By volume, Mexico is now a larger customer for U.S. oil than a supplier to it.

For readers comparing heavy crude suppliers to U.S. refiners, the decline in Mexican volumes is one reason Canadian heavy crude has become even more central to the U.S. import table; see our U.S. oil imports by country explainer and the WCS-WTI differential explainer.

Natural Gas: The Dependence Runs Deeper

Mexico's reliance on U.S. supply is even more pronounced in natural gas. EIA data on U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico, converted by PetroEyes to daily averages, show the trend:

Year	U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico (Bcf/d)
2015	2.89
2020	5.44
2023	6.14
2024	6.40
2025	6.64

Source: EIA, U.S. natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico, annual (checked October 2026).

Exports more than doubled between 2015 and 2025. For comparison, Pemex reported domestic natural gas production of 3,592 million cubic feet per day (about 3.6 Bcf/d) in the second quarter of 2025, so U.S. pipeline gas arriving in Mexico is nearly twice Pemex's own gas output. Already in 2015 the EIA noted that Mexico would rely on increased pipeline imports from the United States as domestic production stagnated and demand rose, particularly in the electricity sector.

This link also ties Mexico to U.S. gas prices. Pipeline flows into Mexico are a steady demand factor for the U.S. gas market, discussed on our natural gas price page and on the United States country page.

Why domestic gas has not filled the gap

Mexico does not lack gas resources on paper. The EIA's 2015 analysis cited an estimated 545 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas, the sixth largest of the countries in the EIA's world shale assessment, concentrated mainly in the Burgos Basin in the north, which also supplied more than two-thirds of the country's non-associated gas production at the time. It also noted that development was proceeding slowly and that Mexico lagged the United States considerably in shale and tight oil development, with geological complexity making the recoverable figure far smaller than the total resource base.

Associated gas from oil fields has its own problem. The EIA, citing the CNH, reported that about 147 million cubic feet per day of natural gas was vented and flared in Mexico in 2014, slightly less than 30% of it at Cantarell. Pemex and government agencies had made flaring reduction a priority for economic and environmental reasons. Gas that is flared is gas that cannot be sold or used to displace imports, so capture and processing capacity at the offshore complexes is part of the import equation as well.

The gap between resources and supply is the core of the gas story. Cheap pipeline gas from the United States has been easier to buy than domestic gas has been to develop, and the EIA trade series shows the result year by year.

Fuel Demand at Home

Mexico's own fuel demand is the other half of the refining question. The EIA's 2015 analysis put total oil consumption at about 1.9 million b/d in 2014 and cited Mexican government data showing gasoline at roughly 45% of petroleum product sales and diesel at another 23%. That demand profile, heavy in gasoline, is why refinery configuration matters so much: a plant designed mainly to run heavy Maya crude must convert a large share of each barrel into light products to supply Mexican drivers. When domestic refineries cannot do that, the shortfall arrives from U.S. Gulf Coast refiners, which helps explain why combined U.S. exports of crude and products to Mexico stayed above 1 million b/d in the EIA data for 2024 and 2025 even as Mexican refinery runs rose.

Export Logistics

The EIA's 2015 analysis listed Mexico's main crude export points as the offshore Cayo Arcas terminal, Dos Bocas in Tabasco, and the Pajaritos terminal at the port of Coatzacoalcos on the Gulf coast, plus a Pacific terminal at Salina Cruz. Most Mexican crude exported to the United States was Maya, the heavy sour blend, while Pemex kept most of its lighter Isthmus and Olmeca streams for domestic refineries.

That grade split matters for reading the trade numbers. Maya competes with Canadian heavy crude and, at times, Venezuelan crude for coking capacity on the U.S. Gulf Coast. When Mexican heavy exports fall, Gulf Coast refiners look to other heavy suppliers, which can tighten heavy crude differentials. The crack spreads explainer covers why complex refineries value cheap heavy feedstock.

Rules and Institutions: From the 2013 Reform to the 2025 Laws

Mexico nationalized its oil sector in 1938, and Pemex was created as the sole operator, as the EIA's 2015 analysis summarized. A constitutional reform in 2013 opened exploration and production to private companies through auctions. The first phase of Round One, held in July 2015, offered 14 offshore blocks; only 2 received bids adequate to be awarded, which the EIA attributed to low crude prices and contract terms. Later phases drew more interest, especially for deepwater blocks.

The framework changed again in 2025. The Chamber of Deputies' record shows that the Hydrocarbons Sector Law (Ley del Sector Hidrocarburos) was published in the Diario Oficial de la Federación on March 18, 2025, as part of a decree that also issued the law governing Pemex as a state public company and the law creating the National Energy Commission (Comisión Nacional de Energía, CNE) (Chamber of Deputies, checked October 2026). Law firm summaries of the reform, such as Holland & Knight's note on the 2025 regulations, describe the CNE as taking over functions of the former hydrocarbons regulator (CNH) and energy regulator (CRE), with the law's implementing regulation published on October 3, 2025.

For data users, the institutional change has a practical consequence: production statistics that used to be published by the CNH now come from Pemex, the Energy Ministry (SENER), and the new commission. When comparing older and newer series, check which agency published each figure and whether partner production is included. Pemex's 2025 communiqué, for example, states that its liquids figure includes partner output.

Pemex's Finances in Brief

Pemex is both Mexico's oil producer and a large source of federal revenue, so its finances are part of any reading of the sector. Its second-quarter 2026 communiqué reported:

• Total sales of 510.4 billion pesos, 30.3% higher than in the second quarter of 2025 and the highest in 14 quarters.
• Operating income of 85.5 billion pesos, reversing an operating loss a year earlier, and net income of 18.0 billion pesos.
• A 9.1% reduction in financial debt, with a stated commitment to zero net borrowing.

These are company-reported figures. They describe one quarter and are sensitive to oil prices and the peso-dollar exchange rate. They are included here as context for production and refining decisions, not as a view on Pemex securities.

How to Read a Pemex Quarterly Communiqué

Pemex's quarterly press communiqués, filed with the Mexican Stock Exchange, are the quickest official source for production and refining trends, but they mix units and comparison bases. A short checklist helps:

1. Find the comparison period. Pemex compares some figures with the same quarter of the previous year and others with the previous quarter. The 2025 communiqué compared crude runs with the first quarter of 2025; the 2026 communiqué compared total output with the second quarter of 2025.
2. Separate liquids from oil equivalent. Liquids (Mbd) and total hydrocarbons (Mbpced) are different measures; only the first is comparable with crude production in other countries.
3. Check partner inclusion. The 2025 communiqué states that liquids include partner production.
4. Read refining in two numbers. Crude processed and refined products produced move together but are not the same; product output can exceed crude runs because of other feedstocks and processing gains.
5. Treat financial lines as context. Sales and profit depend on prices and the exchange rate as much as on operations.

Edge Cases and Common Misreadings

• Liquids versus crude. Pemex's headline "liquid hydrocarbons" figure includes condensate and, in 2025, partner production. Crude-only output is lower. International rankings that use crude oil only will show a smaller Mexican number.
• Barrels of oil equivalent. The 2,447 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day figure adds gas converted at an energy ratio. It is not a volume of oil and should not be compared with other countries' crude totals.
• Imports from Mexico as a production proxy. Falling U.S. imports from Mexico partly reflect higher Mexican refinery runs, not only lower production. Check both series before drawing a conclusion.
• One-year changes in refinery runs. Refinery throughput can swing with outages and maintenance. A single strong quarter at Olmeca or the older refineries does not establish a trend.
• Old benchmarks of capacity. The 1.54 million b/d refining capacity figure is from 2014 and predates Olmeca and the Deer Park ownership change; use Pemex's current reports for today's system.

What to Watch in the Data

1. Pemex quarterly liquids output, to see whether the modest recovery Pemex reported between 2025 and 2026 holds.
2. Pemex crude processing, for the pace of the refining pivot.
3. EIA monthly imports from Mexico and exports to Mexico, for the trade balance.
4. EIA pipeline exports to Mexico, for gas dependence and its effect on Texas gas markets.
5. CNE and SENER publications, as the new institutional framework settles.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much oil does Mexico produce?

Pemex reported liquid hydrocarbon production of 1,658 thousand barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, up slightly from 1,638 thousand b/d a year earlier. Total hydrocarbon production, including gas in oil-equivalent terms, was 2,447 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day.

What happened to Cantarell?

Cantarell, in the Bay of Campeche, produced 2.1 million b/d at its 2004 peak, 63% of Mexican crude. By 2014 it produced 322,000 b/d, 13% of the national total, according to the EIA. The adjacent Ku-Maloob-Zaap complex became the leading field, reaching 864,000 b/d in 2013.

Does Mexico still export oil to the United States?

Yes, but less. EIA data show U.S. crude imports from Mexico of 383,000 b/d in 2025, down from 464,000 b/d in 2024 and from a peak of 1.6 million b/d in 2004. Meanwhile, U.S. exports of crude and petroleum products to Mexico averaged about 1.08 million b/d in 2025.

Why does Mexico import so much natural gas?

Because demand, especially for power generation, has grown faster than domestic supply, and U.S. pipeline gas is available at scale. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico averaged about 6.6 Bcf/d in 2025, compared with Pemex's own gas output of about 3.6 Bcf/d in the second quarter of 2025.

Who regulates Mexico's oil sector now?

Under the laws issued by decree on March 18, 2025, the National Energy Commission (CNE) took over regulatory functions previously split between the CNH and CRE, according to law firm summaries of the reform. The Energy Ministry (SENER) sets policy, and Pemex operates as a state public company under its own law.

Is this page investment advice?

No. It is an educational summary of public data from Pemex, the EIA, and Mexican government sources, checked in October 2026. It is not a recommendation about Pemex debt, Mexican assets, or oil prices.

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References

1. Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex). Comunicado 69/2026, "PEMEX registra resultados operativos y financieros favorables durante el segundo trimestre de 2026." July 31, 2026 (filed with the Mexican Stock Exchange). https://www.bmv.com.mx/docs-pub/eventemi/eventemi_1578847_1.pdf
2. Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex). Comunicado 25/2025, "Presenta Pemex sus resultados del segundo trimestre de 2025." July 28, 2025. https://www.bmv.com.mx/docs-pub/eventemi/eventemi_1482207_1.pdf
3. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). "Mexico" country analysis, 2015 archive edition. https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis_includes/countries_long/mexico/archive/pdf/mexico_2015.pdf
4. EIA. U.S. imports by country of origin, crude oil, annual. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_epc0_im0_mbblpd_a.htm
5. EIA. U.S. exports by destination, total crude oil and products, annual. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_expc_a_EP00_EEX_mbblpd_a.htm
6. EIA. U.S. natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico, annual. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9132mx2A.htm
7. Cámara de Diputados. Ley del Sector Hidrocarburos, DOF March 18, 2025. https://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/ref/lsh.htm
8. Holland & Knight. "Reglamento de la Ley del Sector Hidrocarburos en México." October 7, 2025. https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2025/10/reglamento-de-la-ley-del-sector-hidrocarburos-en-mexico

All sources checked October 22, 2026.