EIA November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook: Brent Near $100, Then Down to $77

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its November Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, and the headline is a split one. Oil stays expensive through the end of the year, then gets cheaper through 2027. Natural gas does the opposite of what it did last winter: a warm November and growing production push the EIA’s winter price call down 16 percent from a month ago. US crude production hits a record. Diesel and gasoline forecasts move up, not down, because refined product markets stay tight even as crude eases. The outlook was built on inputs finalized November 5, so it does not account for anything that happened after that day, and the EIA says so itself.

This page works through the outlook the way a reader of the Wednesday inventory report would: the price call first, then the inventory story that supports it, then production, then what drivers and households pay, then gas, then the rest of the energy picture. Every figure comes from the EIA’s own release or from the PetroEyes market data file, and every derived number is labelled as this page’s arithmetic. Forecasts are reported as the EIA’s expectations, not as facts about what will happen.

The outlook in one table

The EIA publishes a short overview table with each outlook. The November edition puts Brent at $97 a barrel on average in 2026, up from $69 in 2025, and $86 in 2027. US crude production rises from 13.9 million barrels a day in 2026 to a record 14.3 million in 2027. Retail gasoline averages $3.89 a gallon in 2026 and $3.73 in 2027. Henry Hub averages $3.37 per million British thermal units in 2026 and $2.88 in 2027. US LNG exports climb from 17.6 billion cubic feet a day in 2026 to 19.0 in 2027.

The annual averages hide the shape of the story. Brent at $97 for 2026 as a whole includes an October that averaged $124, and the fourth quarter of 2027 at $77 sits well below the 2027 annual average of $86. The direction of travel matters more than any single cell: oil high now and lower later, gas lower now and lower still next year, US output still rising, and fuel prices at the pump staying high even as crude falls. The sections below take each piece in turn.

Where prices stand now

The market has already moved a long way from the October average the outlook describes. Brent crude closed at $91.92 a barrel on Tuesday, November 10, in the PetroEyes market data file, down from $98.32 on Friday, November 6, a drop of $6.40, or 6.5 percent, in two sessions. WTI closed at $86.23, down from $90.83 over the same two sessions, a drop of $4.60, or 5.1 percent. The Brent-WTI spread, the gap the EIA leans on for its inventory story, stood at $5.69 on November 10, down from $7.49 on November 6. Henry Hub closed at $3.29 per million Btu on November 10, up from $3.00 on November 6.

Set those closes against the October monthly average and the move looks bigger. Brent averaged $124 a barrel in October, $10 higher than September and the highest monthly average since July 2022, when prices averaged $127 adjusted for inflation. The November 10 close of $91.92 sits about 26 percent below that October average. The EIA’s own text records the turn: Brent fell below $100 on November 4, after flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued through ship-to-ship transfers along Oman’s coast and Middle East exports rose slightly in October following the restart of the Saudi Arabian East-West Pipeline, according to ship tracking data from Vortexa cited by the EIA.

That gap between the October average and the November close is the first thing to hold in mind while reading the forecast. The outlook expects Brent to average around $100 a barrel during November and December, which is above where the market closed on November 10. A forecast built on inputs finalized November 5 can look stale within a week when prices move this fast, and the EIA flags that limit in the outlook itself. The forecast is a path, not a price target for any given day.

The oil call: near $100 now, $77 by late 2027

The EIA’s price call has two halves. For the rest of 2026, Brent stays near $100 a barrel. The agency expects Brent to average around $100 during November and December, with the market still tight enough that a wide Brent-WTI spread keeps US crude flowing out and imports down. Through 2027, the price fades in stages: global inventories build by 3.5 million barrels a day in the first half of 2027, pushing Brent below $90 in the second quarter, and as depleted inventories rebuild through the year the price falls gradually to an average of $77 in the fourth quarter of 2027.

The drivers behind the high price are all in the October data. Crude prices rose for a third consecutive month in October as global oil inventories kept falling. Attacks on oil tankers continued around the Middle East and, more recently, in the Black Sea, stemming from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in the EIA’s wording. Those attacks disrupted global oil flows and cut the availability of tankers, and tanker rates rose sharply. Longer shipping routes added cost on top of the disruption. The EIA dates the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict to February 28, 2026, and the disruption story runs through the whole outlook from that date.

Shut-ins: 10.9 million barrels a day at the peak, 2.5 in October

The clearest measure of how much supply the conflict took out is the EIA’s shut-in estimate: crude production shut in across the Middle East averaged 2.5 million barrels a day in October, down from 10.9 million a day at the peak in May. That is a drop of 8.4 million barrels a day, or about 77 percent, from the worst point, and it explains why October’s price, high as it was, did not match the spring. The EIA holds shut-in volumes essentially flat through the rest of 2026, on the assumption that oil flows from the Middle East stay somewhat constrained, and then has them falling gradually through the forecast period as export workarounds do their work: pipeline and overland bypass routes, ship-to-ship transfers, and new pipeline capacity expected to come online in the United Arab Emirates in 2027.

The forecast’s central assumption is that most Middle East production outside Iran returns to pre-conflict averages by the end of the second quarter of 2027. Exports from Iran, by contrast, stay constrained through the forecast period. That split is doing a lot of work in the price path: the return of non-Iranian output is what lets global inventories build 3.5 million barrels a day in the first half of 2027, and the continued constraint on Iran is part of why the price falls gradually rather than all at once.

Demand fell too, which kept prices from going higher

The supply disruption did not lift prices as far as it might have, because demand fell at the same time. The EIA now estimates that global liquid fuels consumption will fall by 2.0 million barrels a day in 2026. Consumption fell hardest in China, and in the Middle East it fell largely because of reduced air travel and less economic activity. That demand loss limited the impact of the supply loss on prices, and it is the other half of the October story: a market can lose 2.5 million barrels a day of production and still see prices ease if it also loses 2.0 million barrels a day of consumption.

The EIA expects demand to recover in 2027, rising by 2.0 million barrels a day on average as oil flows gradually increase and falling prices encourage more use. Global inventories fell by an average of 1.2 million barrels a day in the third quarter of 2026 but begin building in the fourth quarter, as production outpaces consumption. The EIA adds a caution that belongs in any reading of the forecast: heightened disruption risk and longer shipping routes will limit the near-term impact of those stock builds until geopolitical risk fades and inventories return closer to pre-conflict levels. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes remain open to disruption, so short-term price moves will be more volatile than the monthly forecast shows.

US crude inventories: the lowest October since 2014

The domestic half of the story is the inventory number. US commercial crude oil inventories fell to 410 million barrels at the end of October 2026, the lowest end-of-October level since 2014. The EIA gives two reasons. A large spread between Brent and WTI prices encouraged crude oil exports and lowered crude oil imports, draining the domestic stock. High crude oil inputs at US refineries over the past several months helped too, pulling barrels out of storage and into refined products.

The spread mechanism is visible in the market data. The Brent-WTI spread stood at $7.49 on November 6 and $5.69 on November 10, a wide gap by the standards of the past few years, and a wide spread pays a trader to load US crude onto a ship and sell it where Brent sets the price. That trade is the drain. The outlook expects the drain to slow rather than reverse in the near term: inventories stay below the five-year average through the middle of next year, because ongoing tightness in the global oil tanker market sustains a wide, if narrowing, Brent-WTI spread. The narrowing matters. As the spread closes, the export incentive fades, net imports rise, and inventories gradually build again.

The other half of the rebuild is production. US crude output reaches a record 14.3 million barrels a day in 2027 in the forecast, up from 13.9 million in 2026 and 13.7 million in 2025. More domestic barrels plus more net imports is what lifts inventories off the October low. The weekly petroleum report that would normally test the inventory story on Wednesday moves to Thursday, November 12 at noon Eastern this week because of the Veterans Day holiday, and it covers the week ending November 6. Until that release, the 410 million barrel figure is the newest official word on the stock.

Readers who follow the Wednesday report should keep the lag in mind. The outlook’s inventory figures are end-of-month stocks, and the weekly report is the flow that moves them. A single weekly build or draw does not confirm or break the forecast; the pattern over several weeks does. The guide to reading the weekly petroleum report walks through the release line by line, including the balance-sheet arithmetic that shows whether a stock move came from production, imports, exports, or refinery runs.

US production: a record 14.3 million barrels a day

US crude production of 14.3 million barrels a day in 2027 would be a record, and it arrives while the rig count is barely moving. The Baker Hughes count carried in the PetroEyes data file puts US rigs at 604 for the week ending November 6, 2026, up one on the week and 56 above a year earlier. Oil rigs account for 463 of the total and gas rigs 131, with 10 miscellaneous rigs making up the rest. The Permian Basin, the largest single basin, holds 273 rigs, up one on the week and 22 above a year earlier, and every one of them is an oil rig.

The gap between a flat rig count and rising production is the shale productivity story in one line: fewer rigs drilling longer, more productive wells. The EIA’s production forecast does not need a drilling boom to reach 14.3 million barrels a day; it needs the current fleet to keep doing what it is doing. That is also why the rig count is a weak leading indicator on its own. A one-rig weekly move means nothing, and even the year-over-year gain of 56 rigs is small against a fleet of 604. The count tells you where the drilling is, not how much oil comes out, and the rig count guide on this site works through the distinction, including why a rig move is not a production move and how the horizontal mix changes what the count means.

What drivers pay: diesel and gasoline forecasts move up

The part of the outlook that will reach the most readers is the fuel price section, and it runs against the crude price story. Although the EIA expects the US average retail price of gasoline and diesel to decline in 2027, it raised its forecast for both from last month’s outlook. Retail diesel averages $5.03 a gallon next year, 12 percent higher than the October forecast of $4.49. Gasoline averages $3.73 a gallon, 5 percent higher than the October forecast of $3.56. For 2026, the outlook has diesel at $5.25 and gasoline at $3.89.

The reason is the refined product market, not the crude market. The EIA now assumes global petroleum product markets will face continued supply constraints through the end of 2027. Those conditions support wider crack spreads next year and keep US refineries running hard. A crack spread is the margin between a barrel of crude and the refined products made from it, and a wider spread means refiners earn more per barrel and run their plants harder. The crack spreads guide on this site works through the 3-2-1 gasoline and 2-1-1 diesel formulas and the regional benchmarks, and the gasoline price breakdown shows what sits inside the retail price beyond crude and refining.

The split between crude and fuel prices is worth spelling out, because it catches readers out. Crude can fall while gasoline stays high if the refinery margin widens by more than crude falls, and that is roughly what the EIA is forecasting for 2027: Brent down to $86 on average for the year, diesel still above $5 a gallon. The two series share a driver in crude, but the pump price adds refining, distribution, taxes, and the product market’s own balance. A driver watching crude fall and waiting for the pump price to follow in step is watching the wrong series.

Natural gas: a cheaper winter than the last one

The gas section of the outlook is the most direct revision of the month, and it runs in the opposite direction from oil. A warm start to November is putting downward pressure on US natural gas prices. The forecast assumes 13 percent fewer heating degree days across the United States in November compared with the 10-year average for the month, and it now expects 3,840 billion cubic feet of gas in storage at the end of November, 67 Bcf more than last month’s forecast. The October outlook had pencilled in 3,773 Bcf; the extra 67 Bcf is gas that mild weather left in the ground.

The price call follows. The EIA forecasts the Henry Hub spot price to average $2.87 per million British thermal units from November through March, 16 percent lower than last month’s forecast and 36 percent less than last winter. For 2027 as a whole, Henry Hub averages $2.88, down from $3.37 in 2026. Continued growth in US natural gas production puts downward pressure on prices through the coming year: production growth outpaces demand growth from domestic sources and exports, leaving inventories about 3 percent above 2026 levels on average.

The demand side is a weather story with a kink in it. Residential and commercial consumption should average 36.4 billion cubic feet a day during the 2026-27 winter heating season, down 3.8 percent from last winter, on 1 percent fewer heating degree days than last winter. January is the mild month in the forecast, with heating degree days down 10 percent from last year and residential and commercial consumption down 10 percent with them. March runs the other way: heating degree days up 31 percent from last winter, consumption up 17 percent. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter outlook reflects a strengthening El Nino and favors above-average temperatures across the northern United States from December through February, but the EIA notes that the timing and severity of cold weather remains uncertain, and that severe cold in January and February could lift winter demand above the forecast and cause temporary price spikes.

The export side: US gas cheap, world gas dear

The gap between US and world gas prices is the widest it has been in years, and it is the engine of the LNG story. International natural gas prices have climbed to their highest levels since December 2022 while US Henry Hub prices have fallen. The EIA cites Bloomberg data: since the U.S.-Iran conflict began on February 28, the monthly near-month futures price at the European benchmark Dutch Title Transfer Facility rose from an average of $11.27 per million Btu in February to $28.51 in October, a rise of about 153 percent. The Japan-Korea Marker in East Asia rose from $10.82 to $28.59 over the same stretch, about 164 percent. Tanker strikes and other logistical disruptions have continued to limit LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz, which remain well below pre-war levels.

Against that backdrop, US LNG exports keep growing. The EIA forecasts exports averaging 17.6 billion cubic feet a day in 2026 and 19.0 in 2027, up from 15.1 in 2025, a rise of about 26 percent over two years. The seventh and final train of the Corpus Christi Stage 3 export facility, with 1.5 billion cubic feet a day of nominal capacity, reached substantial completion in late August. Golden Pass LNG has reported a sustained increase in feedgas demand in recent weeks after months of slower-than-expected exports from Train 1 since its April 2026 startup. Cove Point LNG, at 0.8 billion cubic feet a day, concluded planned maintenance on October 12, adding its volumes back in October. The LNG terminals guide on this site covers the facilities behind those numbers.

The storage position behind the winter call is covered in depth on this site. Working gas in the Lower 48 stood at 3,801 Bcf for the week ending October 30, 2026, and the winter storage page breaks that total down by region and tests it against last winter’s 2,132 Bcf draw. The outlook’s end-of-November figure of 3,840 Bcf sits 39 Bcf above the October 30 level, which fits a mild November that keeps adding small injections into the start of the withdrawal season. The next storage report, on Thursday, November 12, covers the week ending November 6 and will show whether the season has actually turned.

The rest of the outlook: power, coal, and OPEC

The outlook covers more than oil and gas, and three items in the rest of it are worth carrying. First, electricity: the EIA expects the US electric power sector to generate almost 4,390 billion kilowatthours in 2026, up 2.7 percent from 2025, driven by rising demand from the commercial sector and increased cooling needs from warmer-than-average summer temperatures. Generation growth slows to 1.2 percent in 2027, with forecast milder weather reducing residential demand. Most of the growth over the forecast period comes from utility-scale solar plants, and solar’s share of generation rises from 7 percent in 2025 to 8 percent in 2026 and 10 percent in 2027, while natural gas slips from 40 percent to 39 percent and coal holds at 15 percent.

Second, coal: US coal consumption falls by 7 percent to 419 million short tons in 2026, and by another 5 percent in 2027. Production decreases by just 2 percent this year, as rising exports partly offset the drop in consumption, and falls by another 4 percent in 2027 as consumption decreases and exports remain flat. Even with flat exports, exports make up a rising share of US coal disposition, supported by stronger demand from Europe and Asia as well as China’s commitment to purchase 10 million metric tons of US coal in both 2027 and 2028.

Third, OPEC: the outlook’s notable forecast changes table shows total OPEC liquid fuels production at 24.5 million barrels a day in 2026, up from 23.9 million in the October forecast, and 28.4 million in 2027, down from 29.2 million. The two revisions point in opposite directions, which fits a producer group whose 2026 output is running higher than expected while its 2027 recovery is pushed later. The OPEC+ guide on this site covers how the group’s quotas, baselines, and compliance work, and the Strait of Hormuz guide covers the volumes and bypasses behind the tanker story in this outlook.

What changed since October

Each outlook carries a table of notable forecast changes against the previous month, and the November table is unusually one-sided: fuel prices up, gas prices down, OPEC output mixed. Diesel is the biggest move, up 12 percent for 2027 against the October forecast. Gasoline is up about 5 percent for 2027. Henry Hub is down 8.8 percent for 2027 and 3.3 percent for 2026. OPEC liquids are up 2.4 percent for 2026 and down 2.8 percent for 2027. The pattern is a market where the crude price is easing but the products made from it are not, and where gas is getting cheaper at home while it gets dearer abroad.

The changes table is also the fastest way to see what the EIA itself thinks moved in the past month. A 12 percent upward revision to next year’s diesel price is a large move for a monthly outlook, and it sits next to an 8.8 percent downward revision to next year’s gas price. The two revisions have different causes: diesel moves on product-market tightness and crack spreads, gas moves on a warm November and rising production. Reading them together keeps either one from being mistaken for a view on the whole energy market.

How to read it, and what to watch next

Three habits make the outlook more useful and harder to misread. First, mind the date on the inputs. The EIA finalized the model inputs on November 5, 2026, and the outlook does not specifically account for market events after that day. Brent fell below $100 on November 4, a day before the cutoff, so the turn is inside the data, but anything since November 5 is not. A forecast that is six days old in a market moving 5 percent in two sessions deserves to be read as a path, not a price.

Second, watch the spread. The Brent-WTI spread is the hinge of the inventory story: wide spreads drain US stocks through exports, narrowing spreads let them rebuild. The spread stood at $5.69 on November 10, down from $7.49 on November 6. If it keeps narrowing, the export drain slows and the inventory rebuild the outlook expects for 2027 starts early. If it widens again, the drain continues and the 410 million barrel low gets tested. The WTI-Brent spread guide on this site explains what the gap pays for and how to read it day by day.

Third, use the Thursday releases to test the outlook rather than to replace it. The weekly petroleum report on Thursday, November 12 at noon Eastern covers the week ending November 6 and is the first fresh inventory data since the outlook. The natural gas storage report lands the same day at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. Neither release will prove or break a forecast that runs to the end of 2027, but the direction of the first few prints will show whether the mild November and the narrowing spread are already moving the numbers the way the outlook expects. The guide to reading the outlook itself covers the tables behind the headlines, for readers who want to follow the monthly editions as they land.

Data and sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, released November 10, 2026 (overview, global oil markets, and natural gas sections), read firsthand November 11, 2026. Market closes from the PetroEyes market data archive, last updated November 11, 2026 (closes for November 10, 2026). Rig counts from the PetroEyes rig count archive (Baker Hughes, week ending November 6, 2026), checked November 11, 2026. Storage level for October 30, 2026 from the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report via the PetroEyes archive. Ship tracking data from Vortexa, TTF and Japan-Korea Marker prices from Bloomberg, and the NOAA winter outlook are all as cited by the EIA in the outlook. The weekly petroleum report timing (Thursday, November 12, 2026 at noon Eastern) follows the EIA holiday schedule for the Veterans Day week. Percentages, spreads, and the 3,773 Bcf October storage forecast are this page’s arithmetic on those sources. All EIA figures are the agency’s forecasts, not this page’s predictions.