In the Dallas Fed's March 2026 survey, oil and gas executives said their firms needed an average WTI price of $66 a barrel to profitably drill a new well, and $43 a barrel to cover the operating costs of wells already pumping. The new-well figure was $68.57 in the Midland Basin and $63.21 in the Delaware Basin. It is the best-known breakeven number in the industry, and it is a survey average, not a measured cost.
The same question has been asked every March since 2016, so the survey now holds eleven first-quarter readings. Set against the price of oil in each of those Marches, they show how far above or below the drilling line the market sat, and what happened to production afterwards. They also show that the nominal breakeven has risen $12 since 2016 while, adjusted for inflation, it has fallen $8.9.
How the number is produced
The Dallas Fed Energy Survey goes to executives at oil and gas firms located or headquartered in the Eleventh District, which covers Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico. The first-quarter 2026 survey was collected March 11 to 19, 2026, and 135 energy firms responded, 92 of them exploration and production companies and 43 oilfield services firms. Two special questions have been included in the first-quarter survey since 2016. The first asks, for the top two areas in which the firm is active, what WTI oil price the firm needs to profitably drill a new well. The second asks what WTI price covers operating expenses for existing wells.
The published figure is the simple average of the responses. It is not weighted by production, it is not adjusted for the size of the firm, and any play with fewer than five responses in a given year is shown as unavailable. Because respondents choose their own definition of profit and their own cost accounting, the number is best read as a measure of executive sentiment about drilling economics, calibrated by the same executives every year. The Dallas Fed publishes the full run on its breakeven page and, for context, the price of WTI during the survey window: $94.65 in March 2026.
Eleven Marches in one table
Table 1. WTI price needed to profitably drill a new well and to cover operating expenses on existing wells (dollars per barrel, average response)
| Survey year | New well, all responses | New well, Permian | New well, large firms | New well, small firms | Existing wells, all responses | New well in September 2026 dollars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $54 | $51 | n/a | n/a | $29 | $76 |
| 2017 | $50 | $48 | n/a | n/a | $33 | $69 |
| 2018 | $52 | $50 | n/a | n/a | $35 | $70 |
| 2019 | $50 | $50 | n/a | n/a | $33 | $66 |
| 2020 | $49 | $49 | n/a | n/a | $30 | $64 |
| 2021 | $52 | $50 | n/a | n/a | $31 | $65 |
| 2022 | $56 | $52 | $49 | $59 | $34 | $64 |
| 2023 | $62 | $61 | $55 | $64 | $37 | $69 |
| 2024 | $64 | $65 | $58 | $67 | $39 | $69 |
| 2025 | $65 | $65 | $61 | $66 | $41 | $68 |
| 2026 | $66 | $67 | $59 | $68 | $43 | $67 |
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas Fed Energy Survey, break-even prices for U.S. oil producers (breakeven.xlsx, last update March 25, 2026), first-quarter survey each year, average responses, checked October 23, 2026. Large firms produce 10,000 barrels a day or more and small firms less; the Dallas Fed began separating them in 2022 (new wells) and 2024 (existing wells). The last column is this page's single conversion of the all-responses new-well figure with BLS CPI-U annual averages for each survey year (2026 is the mean of January to September, 332.2) to a September 2026 base of 336.94.
The all-responses new-well average started at $54 in 2016, sat between $49 and $52 from 2017 to 2021, then rose $10 between 2021 and 2023 and a further $4 in the three years to 2026. The existing-well line rose from $29 to $43. In real terms the new-well breakeven fell from $76 in 2016 to a low of $64 in 2020, recovered to $69 by 2023 and has been $67 to $69 since. The decline to 2020 and the plateau after it are survey results; the survey does not break the change into technology, costs and the mix of respondents.
Reading the real-dollar column
The last column corrects each year's answer for inflation once. The $54 breakeven of 2016 is $76 in September 2026 dollars; the survey itself reports nominal dollars throughout. The real series is a convenience for comparison, and executives were not asked for inflation-adjusted figures.
Basin by basin
The headline average mixes areas with very different costs. The Dallas Fed reports individual plays when at least five respondents are active in them, so some cells are blank.
Table 2. WTI price needed to profitably drill a new well, by play (dollars per barrel, average response)
| Play | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Permian: Midland | $46 | $47 | $48 | $46 | $46 | $51 | $58 | $62 | $61 | $69 |
| Permian: Delaware | $48 | $49 | $49 | $52 | $49 | $50 | $61 | $64 | $62 | $63 |
| Permian: Other | n/a | $52 | $54 | $50 | $53 | $54 | $66 | $70 | $70 | $70 |
| Eagle Ford | $48 | n/a | $51 | $46 | $46 | $48 | $56 | n/a | $62 | $63 |
| Other U.S. (Shale) | $55 | $54 | $49 | $51 | $58 | $69 | $61 | $59 | $63 | $62 |
| Other U.S. (Nonshale) | $53 | $40 | $49 | $50 | $53 | $60 | $63 | $66 | $66 | $68 |
| Oklahoma - SCOOP/STACK | $47 | $53 | $53 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | $65 | n/a | n/a |
Source: Dallas Fed Energy Survey breakeven.xlsx (update of March 25, 2026), sheet New Wells, first-quarter surveys 2017 to 2026, checked October 23, 2026. n/a means the Dallas Fed suppressed the cell because fewer than five responses or the category was not used that year. The 2016 survey used a different regional split and is shown only in Table 1.
Midland has moved from $46 in 2017 to $68.57 in 2026, a rise of 49%. Delaware went from $48 to $63.21, up 32%. Delaware was the dearer sub-basin in 8 of the nine years from 2017 to 2025, by $1.19 to $5.99; Midland was dearer in 2022 and again in 2026, when it led by $5.36. A ranking that flips this often is a reminder that each cell is an average of a few dozen opinions. Across the seven plays with data in 2026 the range runs from $62.38 (Other U.S. (Shale)) to $70.00 (Permian: Other), a spread of $7.62. The Permian area's role in national output is covered in the Permian outlook and the production by state guide.
A margin matrix for any oil price
The survey averages can be turned into a lookup. For a given WTI price, the table shows the margin per barrel over the 2026 average breakeven of each group; a negative cell means the price is below that group's average answer.
Table 2a. WTI price minus the 2026 new-well breakeven, by group (dollars per barrel)
| WTI price | Midland | Delaware | Eagle Ford | Other shale | All responses | Large firms | Small firms |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50 | -$18.57 | -$13.21 | -$13.00 | -$12.38 | -$16.00 | -$9.00 | -$18.00 |
| $60 | -$8.57 | -$3.21 | -$3.00 | -$2.38 | -$6.00 | +$1.00 | -$8.00 |
| $70 | +$1.43 | +$6.79 | +$7.00 | +$7.62 | +$4.00 | +$11.00 | +$2.00 |
| $80 | +$11.43 | +$16.79 | +$17.00 | +$17.62 | +$14.00 | +$21.00 | +$12.00 |
| $90 | +$21.43 | +$26.79 | +$27.00 | +$27.62 | +$24.00 | +$31.00 | +$22.00 |
| $100 | +$31.43 | +$36.79 | +$37.00 | +$37.62 | +$34.00 | +$41.00 | +$32.00 |
Source: this page's subtraction from the March 2026 Dallas Fed Energy Survey averages in Tables 1 and 2 (Midland 68.57, Delaware 63.21, Eagle Ford 63, other U.S. shale 62.38, all responses 66, large firms 59, small firms 68), checked October 23, 2026. The price column is hypothetical.
At $60 every group in the table is under water except large firms, who sit at +$1.00; at $70 every group clears its average breakeven, by +$1.43 in the Midland Basin and +$11.00 for large firms. The matrix does not estimate what firms would do at each price. It restates the survey so a reader can read off how much of the executive range a given price covers, and it reads the same way for any other year's column in Tables 1 and 2.
The cost of keeping a well running
The second question, what price covers the operating expenses of wells that already exist, produces a different kind of number. It is a floor under production decisions already made rather than a hurdle for new capital, and it is lower in every year and every play.
Table 3. WTI price needed to cover operating expenses on existing wells (dollars per barrel, average response)
| Play | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Permian: Midland | $24 | $25 | $27 | $26 | $27 | $29 | $29 | $38 | $35 | $42 |
| Permian: Delaware | $33 | $30 | $35 | $26 | $26 | $28 | $29 | $31 | $33 | $34 |
| Eagle Ford | $29 | n/a | $28 | $23 | $17 | $23 | $31 | n/a | $26 | $40 |
| Other U.S. (Shale) | $35 | $32 | $28 | $30 | $33 | $33 | $33 | $34 | $41 | $44 |
| Other U.S. (Nonshale) | $38 | $40 | $36 | $36 | $34 | $38 | $45 | $45 | $45 | $47 |
| All responses | $33 | $35 | $33 | $30 | $31 | $34 | $37 | $39 | $41 | $43 |
Source: Dallas Fed Energy Survey breakeven.xlsx (update of March 25, 2026), sheet Existing Wells, first-quarter surveys 2017 to 2026, checked October 23, 2026. n/a: fewer than five responses or category not used.
All responses averaged $43 in 2026 against $66 for a new well, so the gap between starting a well and running one was $23. That gap has been $17 to $25 every year since 2016, which puts the new-well figure between 1.49 and 1.86 times the existing-well figure. The Dallas Fed reported that every respondent could cover operating expenses on existing wells at the prices prevailing in March 2026. That is consistent with US output falling slowly when prices slump: wells already drilled keep producing at prices well below the line where new ones are started.
Large producers and small ones
Table 4. Breakeven by firm size (dollars per barrel, average response)
| Survey year | New well, large firms | New well, small firms | Gap, small minus large | Existing wells, large firms | Existing wells, small firms |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $49 | $59 | $10 | n/a | n/a |
| 2023 | $55 | $64 | $9 | n/a | n/a |
| 2024 | $58 | $67 | $9 | $26 | $44 |
| 2025 | $61 | $66 | $5 | $31 | $44 |
| 2026 | $59 | $68 | $9 | $32 | $46 |
Source: Dallas Fed Energy Survey breakeven.xlsx (update of March 25, 2026), checked October 23, 2026. Large firms had crude oil production of 10,000 barrels a day or more; small firms less. Existing-well figures by size begin in 2024. The gap column is this page's subtraction.
Small firms reported a new-well breakeven $5 to $10 above large firms in every year from 2022, and $14 above on existing wells in 2026. The survey itself notes that small firms are more numerous but large firms account for more than 80 percent of production. That matters for how to read the headline: an average across respondents leans toward small firms because there are more of them. If large firms are 80 percent of output, a production-weighted new-well figure would be below $61 (0.8 times $59 plus 0.2 times $68), about $5 under the survey average. The weighting is this page's illustration, not a Dallas Fed statistic.
Headroom: breakeven against the price in March
Putting each year's breakeven beside the WTI price during that March shows how comfortable the margin was when executives answered.
Table 5. All-responses new-well breakeven against WTI in the survey month, and US crude production that year
| Survey year | New-well breakeven | WTI, March average | Headroom | US crude production (thousand b/d) | Change from prior year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $54 | $37.55 | -$16.45 | 8,859 | -6.1% |
| 2017 | $50 | $49.33 | -$0.67 | 9,374 | +5.8% |
| 2018 | $52 | $62.73 | +$10.73 | 10,972 | +17.0% |
| 2019 | $50 | $58.15 | +$8.15 | 12,335 | +12.4% |
| 2020 | $49 | $29.21 | -$19.79 | 11,349 | -8.0% |
| 2021 | $52 | $62.33 | +$10.33 | 11,324 | -0.2% |
| 2022 | $56 | $108.50 | +$52.50 | 12,026 | +6.2% |
| 2023 | $62 | $73.28 | +$11.28 | 12,972 | +7.9% |
| 2024 | $64 | $81.28 | +$17.28 | 13,267 | +2.3% |
| 2025 | $65 | $68.24 | +$3.24 | 13,662 | +3.0% |
Sources: Dallas Fed Energy Survey breakeven.xlsx (March 25, 2026 update); EIA WTI Cushing spot price, monthly (RWTC), and U.S. field production of crude oil, annual (MCRFPUS2), from the EIA petroleum bulk data file updated October 22, 2026, checked October 23, 2026. Headroom is this page's subtraction of the breakeven from the March average, not from the price on the survey dates. 2026 production is not yet a full year.
The March WTI average was below the all-responses breakeven in 3 of 11 years: 2016, 2017, 2020, by $16.45, $0.67, $19.79 respectively. Annual US crude production fell in 2016 (-6.1%) and in 2020 (-8.0%), the two years with a large shortfall. In 2017 the price sat only $0.67 below the line and production rose 5.8%, a reminder that the average is not a switch. In 2022, with headroom of $52.50, production rose 6.2%, a smaller gain than in 2018 (17.0%) or 2019 (12.4%) at much smaller headroom. The table shows association over small numbers; production depends on rigs, completions, takeaway and the lag between drilling and output, covered in the rig count guide and the drilled-but-uncompleted wells guide.
2026: a price far above the line
March 2026 was the widest margin outside 2022: WTI averaged $91.38 for the month and $94.65 in the Dallas Fed's collection window, against a $66 breakeven. The price context in 2026 was not a normal one, since the EIA's accounts of that spring, collected in the Strait of Hormuz guide, describe a supply disruption that took the monthly WTI average to $91 in March. The September survey, collected September 16 to 24, found WTI averaging $98.70, and the EIA monthly average for September was $97.31, $31.31 above the March breakeven.
What executives expected, and what costs did
The breakeven is a statement about cost. The other half of the survey, which is published four times a year, adds the price outlook and the direction of costs. Between the March and September 2026 surveys the expected year-end WTI price rose, and cost pressure on producers grew in step.
Table 6. Dallas Fed Energy Survey, 2026: price expectations and cost indexes, first and third quarters
| Measure | Q1 2026 (collected March 11-19) | Q3 2026 (collected September 16-24) |
|---|---|---|
| WTI spot average during collection ($ per barrel) | $94.65 | $98.70 |
| Expected WTI at year-end 2026 (average; range) | $74 ($50 to $135) | $88 ($70 to $126) |
| Expected WTI two years ahead | $73 | $79 |
| Expected WTI five years ahead | $79 | $82 |
| E&P finding and development costs index | 22.3 | 41.5 |
| E&P lease operating expenses index | 30.0 | 43.9 |
| Oilfield services input cost index | 34.9 | 60.4 |
| Respondents (E&P; services) | 135 (92; 43) | 125 (83; 42) |
Source: Dallas Fed Energy Survey, first quarter 2026 (March 25, 2026) and third quarter 2026 (September 30, 2026) reports, checked October 23, 2026. Cost indexes subtract the share of respondents reporting a decrease from the share reporting an increase since the prior quarter; a positive reading means more firms saw costs rise than fall, and the index does not measure the size of the change. Expectations are survey averages of respondents' views, not forecasts by this site.
Two readings are worth keeping apart. The expectation rows show executives revising their price view upward by $14 for year-end 2026, with the five-year view moving only from $79 to $82. The cost rows show the finding and development index and the lease operating expense index both well above their first-quarter values, so costs were rising faster by September, not slower. Both indexes were reported above their series averages. A reader inferring next March's breakeven from those indexes would expect it to rise, and a reader inferring it from the oil price would expect to see more drilling; the survey has not yet asked the question again, so neither inference is a measurement.
What the number cannot do
The breakeven is useful as a long-running gauge and misleading as a threshold. It is an unweighted mean of executives' answers, it applies to the firm's top two areas rather than its marginal acreage, it is a point-in-time view recorded in March, and it is not audited. Executives define profit differently, some count the cost of capital and some do not, and some firms hedge future production at prices that differ from spot. The breakeven is also an oil number only: one respondent's written comment in the first-quarter 2026 survey pointed to negative Permian gas index prices as a drag on the return from drilling new wells, a cost the oil breakeven does not isolate.
Two other limits matter for a reader using the data. The Dallas Fed Energy Survey covers firms in or headquartered in the Eleventh District, so it speaks for the Permian and Eagle Ford better than for the Bakken, the Marcellus or the Gulf of America. And the survey records executives' view of the price a new well needs, while the EIA's reserves ledger, covered in the US oil reserves guide, records what operators book once they commit to drilling; both depend on the price assumed. Neither tells you the next price of oil. For the forward-looking relationships between the futures curve and the physical market, the contango and backwardation guide is the better starting point.
What drilling plans did with the headroom
Headroom is only potential. The first-quarter 2026 survey asked E&P executives who had drilled or completed horizontal wells in the previous two years how the number of wells they expected to drill in 2026 had changed since the start of the year. Half said it had not changed, 26 percent expected a slight increase and 21 percent a significant increase, and 3 percent expected a significant decrease. So 47% planned to drill more, while 50% left plans as they were with WTI near $95, $29 above the average breakeven. Small firms were more likely than large ones to raise their plans.
A follow-up survey collected April 15 to 20, 2026, with 120 respondents, asked how much US oil production would rise in response to the Iran war. The most selected answer for 2026 was an increase of more than 0 but not more than 0.25 million barrels a day (43 percent of respondents), and for 2027 an increase of more than 0.25 but not more than 0.50 million barrels a day (32 percent). The EIA's monthly production series gives the first months of the outcome.
Table 7. U.S. field production of crude oil, monthly (thousand barrels a day)
| Month | Production | Change from December 2025 | Change from 2025 average |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 2025 | 13,835 | +25 | +173 |
| September 2025 | 13,917 | +107 | +255 |
| October 2025 | 13,995 | +185 | +333 |
| November 2025 | 13,927 | +117 | +265 |
| December 2025 | 13,810 | +0 | +148 |
| January 2026 | 13,305 | -505 | -357 |
| February 2026 | 13,711 | -99 | +49 |
| March 2026 | 13,726 | -84 | +64 |
| April 2026 | 13,981 | +171 | +319 |
| May 2026 | 13,811 | +1 | +149 |
| June 2026 | 13,844 | +34 | +182 |
| July 2026 | 13,948 | +138 | +286 |
Source: EIA, U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil (MCRFPUS2), monthly, from the EIA petroleum bulk data file (series updated September 30, 2026), checked October 23, 2026. The 2025 annual average of 13,662 thousand b/d is from the annual series. Differences are this page's subtraction.
Production in July 2026 was 13,948 thousand barrels a day, 138 above December 2025 and 286 above the 2025 average, inside the 0 to 250 thousand range that 43 percent of executives picked for the full year. January 2026 shows a one-month dip to 13,305 before output recovered; a single month in the series does not explain itself. Six months of data after a price shock say little about 2027, and the executives' modal 2027 answer implies a larger response than has yet appeared. The way a rise in activity feeds into output, through rigs, completions and the inventory of wells awaiting completion, is the subject of the rig count guide.
Planning prices are not breakevens
Executives rarely drill to the spot price. The written comments in the third-quarter 2026 survey show the gap between a breakeven and the price a budget is built on. One respondent wrote that, given steep backwardation, companies must look at budgeting off a $65 or $70 per barrel price while operating costs and finding and development costs rise quickly. Another wrote that the bottom end of the crude price range was no longer $55 but had moved to $65 to $70 for at least a year or two. Both are individual opinions, quoted as published, and the Dallas Fed does not attach them to firms. They suggest why drilling plans can stay flat when spot sits a long way above the breakeven: a firm that budgets at a planning price near its breakeven has little reason to commit more capital because of a spike it does not expect to last. That reasoning is the respondents', not a finding of the survey, and the futures curve they refer to is described in the contango and backwardation guide.
Shale breakeven questions
What is the shale breakeven price?
It is the WTI price that oil company executives say their firm needs to profitably drill a new well, reported in the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. In the March 2026 survey the average response was $66 a barrel across all responses, $59 for large firms and $68 for small firms.
Is the breakeven price the oil price at which US production stops?
No. The breakeven in the survey answers a different question, what a new well needs, and it applies only to drilling decisions in the respondent's top two areas. The price needed to cover operating costs on wells already producing was $43 a barrel on average in 2026, and every respondent could cover those costs at the prices then prevailing. Production does not stop when the new-well breakeven is breached; it slows as fewer wells are drilled to replace declining output.
What is the breakeven price in the Permian Basin?
In the 2026 survey the average for the Midland Basin was $68.57 and for the Delaware Basin $63.21; across all Permian responses it was $67. Those averages come from the executives in each area who answered, and the Dallas Fed suppresses any play with fewer than five responses.
Why do large producers report a lower breakeven than small ones?
Large firms, defined in the survey as producing 10,000 barrels a day or more, averaged $59 in 2026 against $68 for small firms. The survey does not ask why. Differences in the quality of acreage, in service costs, in debt and in what each firm counts as a cost could all contribute; the Dallas Fed notes large firms account for more than 80 percent of production.
How does the breakeven compare with the oil price now?
WTI averaged $97.31 in September 2026 (EIA series RWTC), $31.31 above the $66 all-responses breakeven from March. The comparison has limits: the breakeven was asked in March, before six months of cost changes, and it is an average across firms and wells, not a threshold for any one.
How often does the Dallas Fed publish breakeven prices?
The special questions are asked in the first-quarter survey each year, which is conducted in March and published in late March. The Dallas Fed keeps a running spreadsheet of the average responses on its breakeven page. The next breakeven answers will come with the first-quarter 2027 survey.
Data and sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Dallas Fed Energy Survey: break-even prices for U.S. oil producers (breakeven.xlsx, last update March 25, 2026), checked October 23, 2026. Dallas Fed Energy Survey, first quarter 2026 report (March 25, 2026; data collected March 11 to 19, 135 respondents) and third quarter 2026 report (September 30, 2026; data collected September 16 to 24, 125 respondents), checked October 23, 2026. EIA WTI Cushing spot price, monthly and annual (RWTC), and U.S. field production of crude oil, annual (MCRFPUS2), from the EIA petroleum bulk data file updated October 22, 2026, checked October 23, 2026. BLS CPI-U (CUUR0000SA0) annual averages as used in the gasoline price history guide on this site, with 2026 the mean of January to September, 332.2, to a September 2026 base of 336.94. Differences, real-dollar conversions, headroom and the production-weighted illustration are this page's arithmetic.