Natural gas prices move with the balance between supply and demand, and the clearest measured signal of that balance is storage. In 295 months since 2002, when US working gas was more than 10 percent above its prior five-year average, the Henry Hub price averaged 23% below its trailing three-year average; when storage was more than 10 percent below, it averaged 38% above. The correlation across all months is -0.48, a real tendency that explains less than a quarter of the variation, and the rest is weather, outages and news.
The relationship is real but is not a forecast: the October storage level did not predict the following winter's price (correlation -0.22 against trend), and the largest monthly price moves cluster between December and March, when 18.8 percent is the typical size of a February move.
Storage is the scoreboard
Gas is hard to store in volume, which is why underground storage matters: it is the only buffer that can absorb a mild winter or release gas in a cold one. The EIA reports working gas in storage monthly back to 1973. Comparing each month's level with the average of the same month in the previous five years, and the Henry Hub price with its own trailing three-year average, produces a simple map.
Table 1. Henry Hub price relative to its trailing three-year average, by storage level against the prior five-year average (monthly, 2002 to 2026)
| Storage compared with prior five-year average for the month | Months | Average price vs trailing 36-month average | Median | Average Henry Hub ($ per MMBtu) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| More than 10% below | 40 | +38.3% | +27.6% | $4.57 |
| 5% to 10% below | 17 | +34.2% | +21.4% | $4.36 |
| 0 to 5% below | 40 | +17.1% | +10.9% | $4.86 |
| 0 to 5% above | 53 | +2.7% | -2.2% | $4.61 |
| 5% to 10% above | 50 | -8.5% | -11.6% | $4.08 |
| More than 10% above | 95 | -23.0% | -30.1% | $3.92 |
Sources: EIA, U.S. Total Natural Gas in Underground Storage (Working Gas), monthly (N5020US2), and Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, monthly (RNGWHHD), from the EIA natural gas bulk data file, checked October 23, 2026. Each month's storage level is compared with the mean of the same month in the previous five years; the price is compared with the mean of the previous 36 months. The buckets, averages and the correlation of -0.48 (slope -1.15 percentage points of price per percentage point of storage) are this page's arithmetic on 295 months.
The pattern is monotonic. As storage moves from far below normal to far above it, the average relative price falls from +38.3 percent to -23.0 percent. The two extreme buckets alone cover 135 of the 295 months, which shows a limit as well: storage has been well above its five-year average in 95 months, a third of the sample, partly because storage capacity and demand have grown, so the five-year yardstick runs behind. The slope of -1.15 means that each percentage point of extra storage went with about 1.2 percentage points less price relative to its trend, and the median in each bucket is lower than the mean in the deficit buckets, so a few spike months pull the average up.
To put the buckets in physical terms: the five-year average for the week of October 16 was 3,602 Bcf, so a 10 percent gap is about 360 Bcf. At the 2025 average of 91.8 Bcf/d of total consumption, that is 3.9 days of national demand. The price differences in Table 1 are attached to a physical cushion of a few days of gas, which is small next to a winter month that draws 19 Bcf/d more than the year's average production supplies.
What this table is and is not
It is a description of how the monthly data line up, using only two series. It is not a model: it ignores weather, production changes and exports, and storage itself responds to price (high prices encourage injections), so the arrow runs both ways. The weekly storage report that supplies the numbers is explained line by line in the storage report guide.
The extremes, and a counterexample
Table 1b. The six largest storage deficits and surpluses in the sample, with the price against its trailing three-year average
| Month | Storage vs prior five-year average | Henry Hub ($ per MMBtu) | Trailing 36-month average | Price vs trailing average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2014 | -52.8% | $4.90 | $3.55 | +38% |
| April 2014 | -47.6% | $4.66 | $3.58 | +30% |
| February 2003 | -41.1% | $7.71 | $3.96 | +95% |
| March 2003 | -39.2% | $5.93 | $4.10 | +45% |
| February 2014 | -38.2% | $6.00 | $3.50 | +71% |
| May 2014 | -36.2% | $4.58 | $3.59 | +28% |
| March 2012 | +59.4% | $2.17 | $3.98 | -46% |
| March 2006 | +58.6% | $6.89 | $6.82 | +1% |
| April 2006 | +54.5% | $7.16 | $6.85 | +5% |
| March 2016 | +53.5% | $1.73 | $3.52 | -51% |
| February 2006 | +49.2% | $7.54 | $6.82 | +11% |
| February 2012 | +47.9% | $2.51 | $4.04 | -38% |
Source: this page's calculation from EIA N5020US2 and RNGWHHD, as in Table 1, checked October 23, 2026. The first six rows are the largest deficits and the last six the largest surpluses among the 295 months.
All six deficit months fall in two periods, February to March 2003 and February to May 2014, and the price in each was +28 to +95 percent against trend. The surplus months are less uniform. March 2012 and March 2016 saw prices -46 and -51 percent against trend, as the table predicts. But March 2006, with storage 58.6% above normal, saw the price at +1 percent against trend. The trailing three-year average then stood at $6.82, lifted by the price spikes of 2003 and 2005, so a price near $6.89 was normal for that window even with a large surplus. A relative measure inherits the level of the period it is measured against, which is one reason this guide uses relative prices rather than absolute thresholds.
A worked example: reading October 2026 from the table
Take the inputs from the current-position paragraph below: storage 1.2% above its five-year norm and a trailing three-year Henry Hub average of $3.02. Table 1 puts a month in that storage range in the "0 to 5% above" bucket, with a mean relative price of +2.7 percent and a median of -2.2 percent. Applied to the trailing average, that implies a price of $2.95 on the median and $3.10 on the mean. The October-to-date average of $3.13 sits $0.03 above the mean-implied figure. The range of outcomes inside the bucket is wide (the bucket holds 53 months), so a reading above or below the implied number is not a signal of anything by itself. The exercise shows how to use the table: as a way to place a price in context, not to produce one.
Does the October storage level predict the winter?
If storage drives price, the level at the end of October, when injections stop and withdrawals begin, should tell something about the winter price to come. The test is simple: for each year from 2002, compare the end-of-October storage deviation with the average Henry Hub price from November to March, measured against the trailing three-year average and against the October price itself.
Table 1a. End-of-October working gas and the following winter's Henry Hub price
| Year | End-October working gas (million cubic feet) | Against prior five-year average | October Henry Hub ($ per MMBtu) | November to March average ($ per MMBtu) | Winter vs trailing 36-month average | Winter vs October price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 3,115,902 | +3.7% | $4.13 | $5.57 | +48% | +35% |
| 2003 | 3,130,211 | +2.6% | $4.63 | $5.50 | +26% | +19% |
| 2004 | 3,302,235 | +8.7% | $6.35 | $6.40 | +36% | +1% |
| 2005 | 3,194,104 | +3.5% | $13.42 | $9.29 | +47% | -31% |
| 2006 | 3,452,241 | +8.7% | $5.85 | $7.16 | +2% | +22% |
| 2007 | 3,565,380 | +10.1% | $6.74 | $8.03 | +7% | +19% |
| 2008 | 3,399,381 | +2.1% | $6.74 | $5.24 | -33% | -22% |
| 2009 | 3,809,867 | +12.6% | $4.01 | $4.89 | -27% | +22% |
| 2010 | 3,850,641 | +10.5% | $3.43 | $4.10 | -31% | +20% |
| 2011 | 3,803,828 | +5.2% | $3.57 | $2.75 | -36% | -23% |
| 2012 | 3,929,250 | +6.6% | $3.32 | $3.47 | -8% | +5% |
| 2013 | 3,816,996 | +1.6% | $3.68 | $4.70 | +34% | +28% |
| 2014 | 3,587,270 | -6.6% | $3.78 | $3.26 | -9% | -14% |
| 2015 | 3,942,279 | +3.8% | $2.34 | $2.00 | -45% | -14% |
| 2016 | 4,012,723 | +5.2% | $2.98 | $3.03 | -6% | +2% |
| 2017 | 3,816,497 | -1.1% | $2.88 | $3.01 | +9% | +5% |
| 2018 | 3,236,255 | -15.6% | $3.28 | $3.38 | +22% | +3% |
| 2019 | 3,762,043 | +1.2% | $2.33 | $2.12 | -28% | -9% |
| 2020 | 3,928,504 | +4.6% | $2.39 | $3.17 | +22% | +33% |
| 2021 | 3,665,385 | -2.3% | $5.51 | $4.56 | +62% | -17% |
| 2022 | 3,569,385 | -3.1% | $5.66 | $3.79 | -4% | -33% |
| 2023 | 3,807,858 | +4.8% | $2.98 | $2.32 | -46% | -22% |
| 2024 | 3,938,399 | +5.1% | $2.20 | $3.51 | -8% | +60% |
| 2025 | 3,930,840 | +3.9% | $3.19 | $4.49 | +58% | +41% |
Sources: EIA, U.S. Total Natural Gas in Underground Storage (Working Gas), monthly (N5020US2), and Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, monthly (RNGWHHD), checked October 23, 2026. The winter is November of the year and December plus January to March of the next; the trailing average is the 36 months before November. Deviations and ratios are this page's arithmetic. The correlation between the storage deviation and the winter price against its trend is -0.22.
The answer is no. Across the 24 winters the correlation between October storage and the winter price against trend is -0.22; measured against the October price itself it is 0.32, the opposite sign. Even the winters of 2004, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, which began with storage more than 8 percent above normal, saw November-to-March prices from +1 to +22 percent against the October price. That is consistent with a market that has already priced the storage level into October, so a surplus or shortfall no longer carries information the price has not absorbed. It does not contradict Table 1, which compares price and storage in the same month: the two move together at a point in time, but a high or low stock does not by itself say which way the price goes next. The lesson for a household is the same as for an analyst: storage explains why the price is where it is, not where it will be.
Where the market stands now
The latest weekly storage report, for the week ending October 16, 2026, put Lower 48 working gas at 3,644 Bcf, 1.2% above the 3,602 Bcf average for the same week of the previous five years (October 17, 2025: 3,798; October 18, 2024: 3,785; October 13, 2023: 3,626; October 14, 2022: 3,342; October 15, 2021: 3,461). The Henry Hub spot price averaged $2.95 in September, 2.0% below its trailing three-year average, and $3.13 over the first 14 trading days of October, 3.5% above it. Table 1 puts a month with storage between 0 and 5 percent above normal in a bucket whose average relative price was +2.7 percent, so the position is ordinary by that measure. It is also a snapshot: the report for the next Thursday, and the weather behind it, will move it.
Where new supply went
A price reflects the balance of flows as well as stocks. The EIA reports production, consumption by sector, exports and imports on a monthly basis; converting each year's total to billion cubic feet per day shows how the market's plumbing changed.
Table 2. U.S. natural gas balance, selected sectors (Bcf/d) and Henry Hub average, 2010 to 2025
| Year | Henry Hub average ($ per MMBtu) | Dry production | Total consumption | Electric power | Residential | LNG exports | Pipeline exports to Mexico | Imports | End-October storage vs 5-year norm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | $4.39 | 58.4 | 66.0 | 20.2 | 13.1 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 10.2 | +10.5% |
| 2011 | $4.00 | 62.7 | 67.1 | 20.8 | 12.9 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 9.5 | +5.2% |
| 2012 | $2.75 | 65.7 | 69.8 | 24.9 | 11.3 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 8.6 | +6.6% |
| 2013 | $3.73 | 66.3 | 71.7 | 22.4 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 7.9 | +1.6% |
| 2014 | $4.39 | 70.9 | 72.9 | 22.3 | 13.9 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 7.4 | -6.6% |
| 2015 | $2.63 | 74.2 | 74.6 | 26.3 | 12.6 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 7.4 | +3.8% |
| 2016 | $2.52 | 72.7 | 75.0 | 27.3 | 11.9 | 0.5 | 3.8 | 8.2 | +5.2% |
| 2017 | $2.99 | 74.9 | 74.4 | 25.4 | 12.1 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 8.3 | -1.1% |
| 2018 | $3.17 | 84.3 | 82.6 | 29.0 | 13.7 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 7.9 | -15.6% |
| 2019 | $2.57 | 92.9 | 85.3 | 30.9 | 13.7 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | +1.2% |
| 2020 | $2.03 | 92.4 | 83.5 | 31.8 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 7.0 | +4.6% |
| 2021 | $3.91 | 94.6 | 84.0 | 30.8 | 12.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 7.7 | -2.3% |
| 2022 | $6.42 | 99.3 | 88.5 | 33.1 | 13.6 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 8.3 | -3.1% |
| 2023 | $2.54 | 103.2 | 89.3 | 35.5 | 12.4 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 8.0 | +4.8% |
| 2024 | $2.19 | 103.1 | 90.3 | 36.8 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 8.6 | +5.1% |
| 2025 | $3.53 | 107.6 | 91.8 | 35.8 | 13.3 | 15.1 | 6.6 | 8.7 | +3.9% |
Sources: EIA, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (RNGWHHD), U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production (N9070US2), Total Consumption (N9140US2), Deliveries to Electric Power Consumers (N3045US2), Residential Consumption (N3010US2), Liquefied U.S. Natural Gas Exports (N9133US2), Pipeline Exports to Mexico (N9132MX2), Imports (N9100US2), and Working Gas in Underground Storage (N5020US2), monthly series summed by year and divided by days, checked October 23, 2026. The Henry Hub average is the mean of twelve monthly values. Storage deviation is this page's calculation for October of each year.
Between 2015 and 2025 dry production rose from 74.2 to 107.6 Bcf/d, an increase of 33.5. Consumption rose 17.2 Bcf/d, and the largest piece of that was electric power (+9.4), while residential use was almost unchanged (12.6 then 13.3). LNG exports rose 15.0 Bcf/d and pipeline exports to Mexico 3.7. Power plants, LNG terminals and Mexico took 84% of the increase in production; homes took almost none (residential use rose 0.6 Bcf/d). Imports, mostly from Canada, rose from 7.4 to 8.7 Bcf/d. The Henry Hub average over the sixteen years ranged from $2.03 in 2020 to $6.42 in 2022, a spread much larger than any year-to-year change in volumes in the table. The $6.42 average of 2022 came in a year when annual production rose 4.7 Bcf/d on 2021, so the annual totals do not reveal what moved the price that year; the monthly storage and export data do. For the export build-out behind the LNG column see the LNG export terminals guide.
Winter pulls homes, summer pulls power plants
The annual table hides the seasonal swing, which is where the short-run pressure comes from. In 2025, month by month:
Table 3. U.S. natural gas consumption by sector, 2025 (Bcf/d) and Henry Hub monthly average
| Month | Residential | Commercial | Industrial | Electric power | All consumption | Henry Hub ($ per MMBtu) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 33.4 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 36.3 | 126.5 | $4.13 |
| February | 28.4 | 17.6 | 26.1 | 33.3 | 115.4 | $4.19 |
| March | 17.0 | 11.8 | 24.1 | 26.8 | 88.8 | $4.12 |
| April | 10.8 | 8.7 | 23.2 | 27.7 | 79.2 | $3.42 |
| May | 6.1 | 6.2 | 22.3 | 31.4 | 74.5 | $3.12 |
| June | 4.3 | 5.2 | 21.8 | 40.4 | 80.6 | $3.02 |
| July | 3.6 | 4.9 | 21.9 | 48.2 | 87.7 | $3.20 |
| August | 3.4 | 4.9 | 22.3 | 45.5 | 85.2 | $2.91 |
| September | 3.7 | 5.1 | 22.3 | 40.7 | 80.8 | $2.97 |
| October | 7.0 | 7.3 | 22.4 | 33.4 | 78.8 | $3.19 |
| November | 15.7 | 11.3 | 24.7 | 31.5 | 92.7 | $3.79 |
| December | 26.6 | 16.3 | 25.8 | 33.8 | 112.8 | $4.26 |
Sources: EIA, U.S. Natural Gas Residential Consumption (N3010US2), Commercial (N3020US2), Industrial (N3035US2), Electric Power Deliveries (N3045US2), Total Consumption (N9140US2) and Henry Hub spot price (RNGWHHD), monthly 2025, divided by days in the month, checked October 23, 2026. All consumption includes uses not shown, such as lease and plant fuel, pipeline fuel and vehicle fuel, so the sector columns do not sum to the total.
Residential use ran from 3.4 Bcf/d in August to 33.4 in January, a ratio of 10 to 1. Power burn peaked at 48.2 Bcf/d in July and bottomed at 26.8 in March, a swing of 21.4. Industrial use hardly moves, between 21.8 and 26.7 Bcf/d. All consumption ranged from 74.5 to 126.5. The market therefore has two demand peaks, one set by cold and one by heat, with its trough in May. Production, at roughly 108 Bcf/d, does not follow that curve, so storage covers the difference, injecting in the shoulder months and withdrawing in winter. The 2025 prices rose and fell with the heating season only modestly, from $2.91 to $4.26, which is consistent with the finding in the Henry Hub guide that the calendar adds little to the benchmark's level.
The same table implies how much the market leans on storage. With dry production averaging 108 Bcf/d for 2025, total consumption exceeded it by 19 Bcf/d in January and fell short of it by 33 Bcf/d in May. Imports, exports and fuel use blur those gaps, so they are approximate, but the pattern is plain: a market that injects in the shoulder months and the summer and withdraws in winter, with a January-to-May consumption swing of 52 Bcf/d, more than three times the 15.1 Bcf/d of LNG exports.
Volatility has a season
The level of the price is not strongly seasonal, but its volatility is. Taking every month since February 1997 and measuring the change in the Henry Hub monthly average from the previous month, the largest movements fall in winter.
Table 4. Month-over-month change in the Henry Hub monthly average, by calendar month (1997 to 2026)
| Month | Observations | Months with a price rise | Average absolute change | Standard deviation of change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 29 | 16 of 29 | 16.1% | 22.9% |
| February | 30 | 9 of 30 | 18.8% | 27.4% |
| March | 30 | 12 of 30 | 10.8% | 14.3% |
| April | 30 | 18 of 30 | 8.9% | 10.6% |
| May | 30 | 19 of 30 | 8.6% | 11.1% |
| June | 30 | 16 of 30 | 7.2% | 9.9% |
| July | 30 | 9 of 30 | 8.0% | 9.7% |
| August | 30 | 11 of 30 | 9.0% | 12.1% |
| September | 30 | 17 of 30 | 10.0% | 12.9% |
| October | 29 | 17 of 29 | 11.1% | 13.2% |
| November | 29 | 12 of 29 | 9.3% | 11.5% |
| December | 29 | 13 of 29 | 16.4% | 21.8% |
Source: EIA, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, monthly (RNGWHHD), January 1997 to September 2026, change from the preceding month's average, checked October 23, 2026. Counts, average absolute change and standard deviation are this page's arithmetic.
February has the largest typical move, 18.8% in absolute terms, followed by December (16.4%) and January (16.1%); June has the smallest at 7.2%. February also has the lowest share of rising months, 9 of 30, which fits a market that spikes in January, as in 2026, and gives the gain back in February. All eight of the largest monthly rises fell between December and March; the four largest were February 2021 (+97%, $2.71 to $5.35); January 2026 (+81%, $4.26 to $7.72); December 2000 (+61%, $5.52 to $8.90); December 2009 (+46%, $3.66 to $5.35). The largest monthly falls are as telling: February 2026 (-53%, $7.72 to $3.62); March 2021 (-51%, $5.35 to $2.62); February 2024 (-46%, $3.18 to $1.72); January 2023 (-41%, $5.53 to $3.27).
Spikes fade faster than they rise
The two largest rises were each followed by one of the two largest falls. January 2026 rose 81% and February 2026 fell 53%; February 2021 rose 97% and March 2021 fell 51%. The February 2026 fall left the monthly average at $3.62, lower than before the January spike began ($4.26 in December 2025). A reader who sees a bill or headline in the spike month sees a number that the market itself had abandoned a month later, which is also why the lag in a utility's purchased gas adjustment, covered in the PGA guide, can send consumers a price the wholesale market left behind. Every measure on this page is descriptive: storage is compared with a five-year average that lags a market where capacity, power demand and exports have grown, Henry Hub is a Louisiana price and not any city's, and annual totals hide the months within a year when the balance tightened. Weather enters only through the sector split, and financial positioning, which the CFTC guide covers, is absent.
Questions about natural gas price moves
Why do natural gas prices change so much?
Because the short-run supply and demand are both inflexible and storage is the only large buffer. Residential use swings from 3.4 Bcf/d in August to 33.4 in January (2025), production barely moves month to month, and the price has to do the balancing. Since 2002 the Henry Hub monthly price has averaged a 23% discount to its three-year average when storage was more than 10 percent above its five-year norm, and a 38% premium when it was more than 10 percent below.
Why does the gas price spike in winter?
Not every winter: the average premium is small. But the largest single-month moves cluster in winter, since heating demand is large and weather-driven. In EIA data from 1997, February has the largest typical monthly price change (18.8 percent on average in absolute terms) and January and December follow at 16.1 and 16.4 percent, against 7.2 percent in June. The two biggest monthly rises, February 2021 and January 2026, were both winter months.
Does LNG export demand raise US gas prices?
LNG exports are demand for US gas, and they grew from 0.1 Bcf/d in 2015 to 15.1 in 2025. Over the same decade dry production rose 33.5 Bcf/d, close to the combined rise in domestic consumption (17.2) and LNG exports (15.0), with pipeline exports to Mexico (3.7) on top. The Henry Hub annual average was $2.63 in 2015 and $3.53 in 2025, so supply growth has kept pace with export growth over the decade.
Why is natural gas cheap in some years and expensive in others?
The annual averages in the balance table run from $2.03 to $6.42 since 2010. The cheap years (2016, 2019, 2020, 2023, 2024) came with storage at or above its five-year average, and the dearest year, 2022, came with storage 3.1 percent below the five-year norm in October.
Can I predict gas prices from the storage report?
Not reliably. Across 295 months the correlation between storage deviation and the monthly price relative to its trailing three-year average is -0.48: a clear tendency, but one that leaves most of the variation unexplained. Weather, production news, outages and the futures curve all act in the weeks between reports.
Why does my gas bill not move when the gas price does?
Because the commodity is only part of the bill and utilities pass changes through with a lag. The gas bill guide and the purchased gas adjustment guide on this site show the fixed charges, the delivery component and the way a regulator-approved factor resets, usually months after the market moves.
Data and sources: EIA natural gas bulk data file (series updated through July 2026 for volumes and September 2026 for the Henry Hub spot price), checked October 23, 2026, for Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (RNGWHHD), Underground Storage (N5020US2), production, consumption by sector, exports and imports (Natural Gas Monthly summary series N9070US2, N9140US2, N3010US2, N3020US2, N3035US2, N3045US2, N9133US2, N9132MX2, N9100US2). Buckets, relative prices, correlations, balance conversions to Bcf/d and monthly volatility statistics are this page's arithmetic.