Natural Gas Benchmarks

Henry Hub vs TTF vs Japan LNG: Why US Gas Is Cheaper

Three gas prices ten dollars apart, a pipe between them that is already full, and a contract structure that decides who keeps the gap.

Last updated: October 23, 2026 · Data: EIA Natural Gas Monthly series, World Bank Pink Sheet (updated October 2, 2026) · Educational analysis, not financial advice

Gas in September 2026 cost $2.95 per million Btu at Henry Hub, $25.42 at the Dutch TTF hub and $14.25 as LNG delivered to Japan. The Henry Hub price is one-ninth of TTF because moving gas across an ocean takes liquefaction plants, tankers and regasification terminals, the EIA reported the US plants near peak output in March, and the contracts that sell most US LNG tie the price paid to the US hub, not to the foreign one. Higher prices abroad therefore raised the foreign price and, in 2026, left the US export value nearly where it was; in the 2022 emergency the dock value rose too, but by far less.

The World Bank’s monthly series put numbers on all three prices from 2015, and the EIA reports what US exporters actually received at the terminal. Placing them side by side separates three things that headlines run together: the benchmark gap, the cost of the journey, and the share of the gap that the US exporter keeps. In 2025 the EIA put US LNG exports at 15.1 billion cubic feet a day, equal to 14 percent of US dry gas production, and the average value at the terminal was $7.64 per MMBtu against a Henry Hub average of $3.52. The benchmark itself is explained in the Henry Hub guide.

Four prices that get called the gas price

Table 1. The series used on this page

SeriesWhat it measuresSource and unitLatest value used
Henry Hub spotCash price for gas delivered at the Louisiana hubEIA RNGWHHD, dollars per MMBtu$2.95, September 2026
TTFPrice at the Netherlands Title Transfer Facility, the European benchmark; the World Bank series follows TTF from April 2015World Bank Pink Sheet, Natural gas, Europe, dollars per MMBtu$25.42, September 2026
Japan LNGAverage cost-insurance-freight import price of LNG into Japan; the last two months are estimatesWorld Bank Pink Sheet, Liquefied natural gas, Japan, dollars per MMBtu$14.25, September 2026 (estimate)
US LNG export valueValue of LNG exported from US terminals, free on boardEIA N9133US3, dollars per thousand cubic feet$8.29, July 2026

Sources: EIA Natural Gas Prices and Natural Gas Monthly; World Bank, Commodity Markets Pink Sheet (monthly prices in nominal US dollars, updated October 2, 2026), checked October 23, 2026. The World Bank file does not include the Platts JKM assessment.

The fourth line is a value at the dock, so it excludes shipping and everything after loading. Only the first three are prices at an end of a trade. The Japan series also deserves a caution. It is not the JKM spot price that traders watch; it is an average of import costs that includes long-term contract cargoes, which is why it moved from $11 to $15 in 2026 while TTF moved from $11 to $25.

Ten years of spreads

Table 2 averages each series by calendar year, adding the two spreads and the ratio of TTF to Henry Hub. The European premium over US gas was a few dollars through 2020, became a gulf in 2021 and 2022, and settled at about $8 to $10 afterwards.

Table 2. Annual average prices and spreads, dollars per MMBtu

YearHenry HubTTFJapan LNGTTF minus Henry HubJapan minus Henry HubTTF as multiple of Henry Hub
2016$2.52$4.56$7.37$2.04$4.851.8x
2017$2.99$5.72$8.61$2.73$5.621.9x
2018$3.15$7.68$10.67$4.53$7.522.4x
2019$2.56$4.80$10.56$2.24$8.001.9x
2020$2.03$3.24$8.31$1.21$6.281.6x
2021$3.89$16.12$10.76$12.23$6.874.1x
2022$6.45$40.34$18.43$33.89$11.986.3x
2023$2.53$13.11$14.39$10.58$11.865.2x
2024$2.19$10.96$12.84$8.77$10.655.0x
2025$3.52$11.96$12.04$8.44$8.523.4x
2026, January to September$3.54$16.92$13.10$13.38$9.564.8x

Sources: EIA, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (RNGWHHD, annual; 2026 is the mean of nine monthly values); World Bank Pink Sheet monthly series for Europe (TTF) and Japan LNG, averaged by calendar year, checked October 23, 2026. Spreads and multiples are this page’s arithmetic.

The series fall into regimes. Through 2020 the three series sat within about eight dollars of each other, and TTF was below the Japan price in every year. In 2021 and 2022 TTF broke away, reaching an annual average of $40.34 in 2022, 6.3 times Henry Hub, and a monthly peak of $70.04 in August 2022. Since then the spread has narrowed, from $10.58 in 2023 to $8.77 in 2024 and $8.44 in 2025. 2026 reopens the gulf: the nine-month TTF average of $16.92 is 4.8 times Henry Hub, with September at 8.6 times.

One feature of Table 2 gets overlooked. In 2025 TTF ($11.96) and the Japan import price ($12.04) were almost level, and in 2023 and 2024 Japan was above Europe. Over a year the two import prices for the same liquefied gas converge, which is consistent with cargoes being able to go either way, even when a month shows a large spread. The Henry Hub price does not converge with them, which is the main point of this page.

From the hub to the dock: what an exporter receives

A US exporter does not sell at TTF. The EIA describes the usual structure in its February 2026 analysis: buyers purchase US LNG free on board, taking ownership at the terminal, and pay an inflation-indexed liquefaction fee plus feedgas costs when a vessel is loaded. Feedgas covers plant fuel, pipeline loss, on-site power and storage, and a common estimate in tolling agreements is 115 percent of the Henry Hub futures price. Brent-indexed contracts, used by many other exporters, are generally priced at between 12 and 13 percent of the Brent futures price. Table 3 sets the EIA’s reported average value of US LNG exports against that formula.

Table 3. US LNG export value against a Henry Hub feedgas estimate, dollars per MMBtu

YearHenry Hub115% of Henry HubEIA export value, per MMBtuRemainderUS LNG exports, Bcf/dTTF minus export value
2016$2.52$2.90$4.55$1.650.5$0.01
2017$2.99$3.44$4.53$1.091.9$1.19
2018$3.15$3.62$5.02$1.403.0$2.66
2019$2.56$2.94$5.03$2.085.0-$0.23
2020$2.03$2.33$5.44$3.116.5-$2.20
2021$3.89$4.47$7.36$2.889.8$8.76
2022$6.45$7.42$11.81$4.4010.6$28.53
2023$2.53$2.91$7.31$4.4011.9$5.80
2024$2.19$2.52$6.19$3.6711.9$4.77
2025$3.52$4.05$7.64$3.6015.1$4.32

Sources: EIA, Price of Liquefied U.S. Natural Gas Exports (N9133US3, annual, dollars per thousand cubic feet, converted at 1.036 MMBtu per Mcf) and Liquefied U.S. Natural Gas Exports (N9133US2, million cubic feet); Henry Hub annual (RNGWHHD); World Bank TTF; EIA Today in Energy of February 2026 for the 115 percent estimate, checked October 23, 2026. Remainder, volume in Bcf/d and the TTF gap are this page’s arithmetic; the remainder is not a published fee.

The remainder column is a calculation, not an EIA statistic: the export value minus the feedgas estimate, which should contain the liquefaction fee and any margin or difference in contract terms. It was $3.67 in 2024 and $3.60 in 2025, and it was $4.40 in 2022 and $4.40 in 2023. The last column shows what happened to the rest of the European price: in 2022 TTF was $28.53 above the EIA export value, in 2024 $4.77 and in 2025 $4.32. That wedge pays for shipping, regasification and the cargo owner’s margin. In 2019 and 2020 the column is negative, because TTF averaged below the dock value; in those years the wedge could not have covered the shipping at all, a fact the annual averages show but cannot explain. The same table shows export volume rising from 0.5 Bcf/d in 2016 to 15.1 in 2025 on the EIA annual series.

Where the cargoes go, and what they paid at the dock

The EIA also reports each destination’s volume and the average value at the terminal. Table 4 lists the thirteen largest destinations of 2025 and puts the dock value in dollars per MMBtu next to the TTF and Japan annual averages from Table 2.

Table 4. Largest destinations for US LNG in 2025 and the average value at the US terminal

DestinationRegionVolume, million cubic feetShare of US LNG exportsValue at the terminal, $ per MMBtuValue minus Henry Hub
NetherlandsEurope645,83811.7%$7.62$4.10
FranceEurope533,0549.7%$7.67$4.15
EgyptAfrica435,3147.9%$7.12$3.60
SpainEurope373,1176.8%$7.47$3.95
United KingdomEurope372,2146.8%$8.04$4.52
TurkiyeEurope and Asia362,9216.6%$8.04$4.52
GermanyEurope355,8386.5%$9.01$5.49
ItalyEurope352,5136.4%$7.92$4.40
South KoreaAsia250,4614.5%$7.25$3.73
PolandEurope229,4424.2%$7.16$3.64
BelgiumEurope197,6083.6%$8.99$5.47
IndiaAsia153,9032.8%$6.82$3.30
TaiwanAsia127,7892.3%$7.05$3.53

Source: EIA, U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas Exports to [country] and Price of Liquefied U.S. Natural Gas Exports to [country], annual 2025 (series NGM_EPG0_ENG_NUS-N??_MMCF and NGM_EPG0_PNG_NUS-N??_DMCF or EVE), checked October 23, 2026; shares are of the U.S. total of 5,508,984 million cubic feet (N9133US2); conversion at 1.036 MMBtu per Mcf and Henry Hub at the 2025 annual average of $3.52 are this page’s arithmetic. Turkiye straddles the Europe and Asia labels.

The thirteen destinations account for 80% of US volume, and eight of them are in Europe, which took more than the Asian customers combined: South Korea, India and Taiwan together received 10% of the 2025 total. And the value at the terminal barely varies with the destination. It runs from $6.82 for India to $9.01 for Germany, a range of $2.18, while the TTF and Japan averages in Table 2 differed by only $0.08 in 2025. A cargo that ends up in a Belgian or a Korean terminal sold at roughly the same dock value. The prices they later fetch in Rotterdam or Tokyo are another story, and they are earned by the buyer, as the EIA’s free-on-board description implies.

The 2022 test: when the dock value did follow

The claim that the dock value stays near Henry Hub deserves a test in the one year when foreign prices rose by more than they have in 2026. Table 5 gives the twelve months of 2022, the year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which the EIA credits with sending 69 percent of US LNG exports to Europe.

Table 5. The 2022 months: prices and the EIA export value, dollars per MMBtu

MonthHenry HubTTFJapan LNGEIA export valueExport value minus 115% of Henry HubTTF minus export value
January 2022$4.38$28.26$14.69$8.26$3.23$20.00
February$4.69$27.23$17.00$9.82$4.42$17.41
March$4.90$42.39$15.11$8.83$3.20$33.56
April$6.60$32.20$16.29$9.97$2.38$22.23
May$8.14$29.17$16.68$11.90$2.54$17.27
June$7.70$33.56$15.53$13.86$5.01$19.70
July$7.28$51.33$18.88$12.32$3.94$39.01
August$8.81$70.04$21.21$14.91$4.78$55.13
September$7.88$59.10$23.73$16.14$7.08$42.96
October$5.66$39.02$21.84$13.82$7.31$25.20
November$5.45$35.72$19.59$11.27$5.01$24.45
December$5.53$36.04$20.58$12.23$5.87$23.81

Sources: EIA, Henry Hub (RNGWHHD) and Price of Liquefied U.S. Natural Gas Exports (N9133US3, converted at 1.036 MMBtu per Mcf); World Bank Pink Sheet (TTF, Japan LNG), checked October 23, 2026. The remainder and gap columns are this page’s arithmetic.

In 2022 the dock value did rise with the world price. It went from $8.26 in January to $16.14 in September, almost doubling, while Henry Hub went from $4.38 to $7.88 and TTF from $28.26 to $59.10. The remainder over the Henry Hub feedgas estimate widened from $3.23 in January to $7.08 in September, which is not what a fixed liquefaction fee on a Henry Hub formula would produce. The EIA data do not say why, and this page does not assert a cause. What they show is that the dock value is partly exposed to world prices, as it must be if some cargoes are sold on spot or oil-linked terms: the EIA’s 2025 review puts the share of newly contracted volumes confirmed as Henry Hub-indexed at 56 percent, down from 67 percent in 2024.

The multiple still tells the story. In September 2022 TTF was 7.5 times Henry Hub and the dock value only 2.0 times Henry Hub. In September 2026 TTF is 8.6 times Henry Hub; the latest published dock value, July 2026, was 2.8 times the July Henry Hub price of $2.89. Even in the 2022 emergency, the exporter’s share of the foreign price was a fraction, and the rest went to whoever paid for the ship and the regasification.

2026, month by month

Table 6. Monthly prices, October 2025 to September 2026, dollars per MMBtu

MonthHenry HubTTFJapan LNGEIA export valueTTF minus Henry HubTTF minus export value
October 2025$3.19$10.89$11.10$7.08$7.70$3.81
November$3.79$10.42$11.15$7.42$6.63$3.00
December$4.26$9.48$11.32$8.17$5.22$1.31
January 2026$7.72$11.76$11.49$8.39$4.04$3.37
February$3.62$11.24$11.32$10.96$7.62$0.28
March$3.04$17.91$11.42$7.34$14.87$10.57
April$2.77$15.41$15.65$7.80$12.64$7.61
May$2.94$16.17$12.88$7.56$13.23$8.61
June$3.15$15.17$11.79$7.63$12.02$7.54
July$2.89$18.06$13.85$8.00$15.17$10.06
August$2.78$21.11$15.27not yet published$18.33n/a
September$2.95$25.42$14.25not yet published$22.47n/a

Sources: EIA, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (RNGWHHD, monthly) and Price of Liquefied U.S. Natural Gas Exports (N9133US3, monthly, converted at 1.036 MMBtu per Mcf); World Bank Pink Sheet (Europe TTF, Japan LNG; last two months estimates for Japan), checked October 23, 2026. Differences are this page’s arithmetic.

TTF averaged $10.76 from October 2025 to February 2026 and $16.54 from March to July, a rise of 54%. The EIA export value averaged $8.40 in the first period and $7.66 in the second, a fall of 9%. The first period includes February 2026, when the EIA value jumped to $10.96 after the January Henry Hub spike that the Henry Hub guide traces to Winter Storm Fern. The second period is the weeks after the Strait of Hormuz disruption that the Hormuz flows guide records, which affected roughly a fifth of global LNG trade; Japan LNG jumped to $15.65 in April and has moved between $11.79 and $15.27 since, TTF kept climbing to $25.42 by September, and Henry Hub stayed between $2.77 and $3.15.

The EIA’s reading of the same months

The EIA’s March 2026 outlook said reduced LNG flows through the strait had raised natural gas prices in Europe and Asia while US prices were expected to be relatively unaffected. Its April outlook said the spread between Henry Hub and European and Asian import prices had widened sharply, that US export plants were running near peak at about 18 billion cubic feet per day in March, and that only very limited flexibility existed to increase exports. Those two statements are the mechanism: the price abroad moved, the US export volume could not follow it much, and the US hub price did not need to move.

How much of the US gas supply is now exported

The reason the plants fill up is also the reason the US price feels the world less than the world feels the US. Table 7 sets the LNG export volume against the EIA’s dry gas production and total consumption.

Table 7. US LNG exports against dry gas production and consumption, selected years

YearLNG exports, Bcf/dDry gas production, Bcf/dExports as share of productionExports as share of US consumption
20160.572.70.7%0.7%
20183.084.33.5%3.6%
20206.592.47.1%7.8%
202210.699.310.7%12.0%
202311.9103.211.5%13.3%
202411.9103.111.6%13.2%
202515.1107.614.0%16.4%

Source: EIA, Liquefied U.S. Natural Gas Exports (N9133US2), U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production (N9070US2) and U.S. Natural Gas Total Consumption (N9140US2), annual, million cubic feet, from the EIA natural gas bulk data file updated October 22, 2026, checked October 23, 2026. Daily rates and shares are this page’s arithmetic.

LNG was 0.7 percent of US dry gas production in 2016 and 14.0 percent in 2025, when the United States exported the equivalent of 16.4 percent of what it consumed. At that scale the US hub price cannot ignore the export market, but it is a demand source that is capped by plant capacity, not by price. The export plants take the gas that the contract holders choose to lift, and Table 3 shows the Henry Hub-linked formula that sets what they pay for it. A household in Ohio is exposed to the foreign price only to the extent that the demand for feedgas tightens US storage, a mechanism the gas bill guide follows from the hub to the bill.

Why the spread is not arbitraged away

Arbitrage needs a way to move more product. The EIA reports eight operational US LNG export terminals and expects export capacity to nearly double from its December 2025 level by 2031. US exports rose from 0.5 billion cubic feet a day in 2016 to 15.0 in 2025. Table 3 shows that the growth is real, and the EIA ties the growth to terminal startups, from Sabine Pass in February 2016 to Plaquemines in late December 2024 and the Corpus Christi expansion in March 2025. When the plants are full, the foreign price can climb without drawing more US gas, and the foreign buyer pays the scarcity rent to whoever controls the liquefaction capacity or the cargo. The Henry Hub price responds to US storage and weather, as in the storage report guide, much more than to events in Europe or Asia.

The destination of the cargoes also changed. The EIA reports that before 2022 Asia took the most US LNG, averaging 46 percent in 2017 to 2021, and that Europe received 69 percent of US LNG exports in 2022 and 68 percent in January to November 2025, up from 34 percent in 2021. The same article credits destination flexibility in US contracts: buyers can redirect cargoes or resell capacity. That flexibility is why the TTF and Japan prices converge over a year, as Table 2 shows.

Converting a TTF headline

European gas is quoted in euros per megawatt-hour, and US gas in dollars per MMBtu. One megawatt-hour is 3.412 MMBtu (3,412 Btu per kilowatt-hour), so a TTF price converts as euros per MWh, divided by 3.412, times the dollar value of a euro. An illustration with an assumed rate of 1.15 dollars per euro: a quote of 60 euros per MWh is 60 divided by 3.412, or 17.6 euros per MMBtu, and times 1.15 is $20.22 per MMBtu. The assumed exchange rate is for illustration only; the exchange rate on the day of the quote is what applies. At $20 TTF is about seven times a $2.95 Henry Hub, and the same unit confusion that the natural gas units guide covers for a household bill applies here.

What the comparison leaves out

The monthly World Bank series are averages in nominal dollars, not futures, and TTF is a European spot-month price. The Japan figure is an import cost, with the last two months estimated. The EIA export value is the average at the terminal for all cargoes in a month, including some sold at spot prices, so it is not a contract price. The $1.036 per Mcf conversion assumes a gas heat content of 1,036 Btu per cubic foot; LNG cargoes vary around that. None of this page forecasts any price, and it says nothing about the economics of an individual terminal.

Henry Hub, TTF and Japan LNG questions

Why is US natural gas so much cheaper than European or Asian gas?

Because US gas has to be liquefied, loaded and shipped to reach those markets, and the export plants are close to full. The United States exported 15.1 billion cubic feet a day of LNG in 2025 and the EIA reported exports near the record 18 billion in March 2026. A gap can persist when the capacity that links two markets is already in use, so extra demand abroad raises the foreign price rather than pulling more US gas out.

What is TTF?

The Title Transfer Facility is the virtual trading point for natural gas in the Netherlands and the main European benchmark. The World Bank series used here follows TTF from April 2015 and is converted to dollars per million Btu. A TTF quote in euros per megawatt-hour converts at 3.412 million Btu per megawatt-hour and the euro-dollar exchange rate.

Is the World Bank Japan LNG series the same as JKM?

No. JKM, the Platts Japan Korea Marker, is an assessed spot price for cargoes delivered to North Asia. The World Bank series is the cost-insurance-freight import price of LNG into Japan from official Japanese statistics, and its last two months are estimates. It tracks Asian LNG costs but includes long-term contract cargoes, so it moves less than a spot marker.

How much does it cost to liquefy and ship US gas?

The EIA does not publish a single figure. Its Today in Energy article of February 2026 says buyers generally pay an inflation-indexed liquefaction fee plus feedgas costs, and that a common estimate for feedgas in tolling agreements is 115 percent of the Henry Hub futures price. The EIA’s average export value in 2025 was $7.64 per MMBtu at the terminal, which is $3.60 more than 115 percent of the $3.52 Henry Hub average; that remainder is this page’s calculation, not a published fee.

Who gets the difference between the US export price and the TTF price?

Under the free-on-board terms the EIA describes, the buyer owns the cargo at the US terminal and pays for shipping, regasification and any delay. In July 2026 the EIA export value was about $8.00 per MMBtu and TTF was $18.06, a gap of about $10 that went to freight, other costs and whoever owned the cargo, not to the terminal.

Do US export prices follow TTF?

Only partly. In 2022 the EIA export value rose from $8.26 to $16.14 per MMBtu between January and September, though TTF rose faster. In 2026 the link was weak: from March to July 2026 TTF averaged $16.54 per MMBtu, up 54 percent from $10.76 in the five months from October 2025 to February 2026, while the EIA export value averaged $7.66 per MMBtu against $8.40 in the earlier period. February 2026 is the exception at $10.96 per MMBtu, the month after the Winter Storm Fern price spike at Henry Hub.

How much of US gas production is exported as LNG?

In 2025 US LNG exports were 5.51 trillion cubic feet, or 14.0 percent of dry gas production of 39.29 trillion cubic feet and 16.4 percent of total consumption of 33.52 trillion. In 2016 the share was 0.7 percent of production. The figures are the EIA’s annual series N9133US2, N9070US2 and N9140US2.

Data and sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (RNGWHHD), Price of Liquefied U.S. Natural Gas Exports (N9133US3) and Liquefied U.S. Natural Gas Exports (N9133US2), monthly and annual, from the EIA natural gas bulk data file updated October 22, 2026, checked October 23, 2026. World Bank, Commodity Markets, Pink Sheet monthly prices (Natural gas, Europe; Natural gas, US; Liquefied natural gas, Japan; nominal US dollars; updated October 2, 2026), checked October 23, 2026. EIA Today in Energy, Ten years after first Sabine Pass cargo, U.S. LNG exports are still on the rise (February 2026; contract structure, 115 percent feedgas estimate, destinations, eight operating terminals), and U.S. LNG developers sign highest volume of sale and purchase contracts since 2022, checked October 23, 2026. EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, March and April 2026 editions (LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz; near-peak US export capacity), as used in the Hormuz guide on this site, checked October 23, 2026. EIA, Heat Content of Natural Gas Delivered to Consumers (1,036 Btu per cubic foot, 2025). Annual averages of the World Bank series, spreads, multiples, conversions and the remainder column are this page’s arithmetic. The Platts JKM assessment is a paid series and was not used.