Guyana

Executive Summary: The Fastest Build-Out in Modern Oil

Guyana, on South America's northern coast between Venezuela and Suriname, produced no crude oil at all before December 2019. By November 2025 its output had passed 900,000 barrels per day (b/d), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), after the Yellowtail project reached full capacity. The EIA estimates that Guyanese crude production increased ten-fold from 2020 to 2025, averaging about 750,000 b/d in 2025, and that Guyana, Brazil, and Argentina together accounted for 28% of global crude production growth in 2025. Every barrel comes from a single offshore block, Stabroek, in the Guyana-Suriname Basin of the Atlantic Ocean.

The scale of the change is best seen in the national accounts. Crude production has been the largest contributor to Guyana's economic growth in recent years, and in 2022 the country's GDP grew by 62.3%, the highest real growth rate in the world that year, according to the International Monetary Fund figures cited by the EIA. In September 2026 ExxonMobil announced that cumulative production from the Stabroek block had passed one billion barrels, less than seven years after first oil. For market context, Guyana's growth barrels are one reason non-OPEC supply keeps offsetting OPEC+ restraint, a dynamic readers can follow on our global oil dashboard and in Brent and WTI price coverage.

Discovery History: Liza Changed Everything

1. The 2015 Liza Discovery

The first significant oil discovery offshore Guyana was made by ExxonMobil in 2015 at what is now the Liza project in the Stabroek block (EIA). It ended decades of intermittent exploration in the basin, including a long history of dry or non-commercial wells, and it did so in deep water that earlier operators had not tested at scale.

2. More Than 30 Discoveries Follow

Since Liza, ExxonMobil and its partners have made more than 30 additional offshore oil and natural gas discoveries within the Stabroek block (EIA, May 2024). The EIA's most recent estimate cited in its country analysis puts Guyana's recoverable oil and natural gas resources at more than 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels, and developers are still exploring the country's offshore waters. Public estimates differ by source and date: Guyana's Minister of Natural Resources put the figure at 11.6 billion barrels in August 2024, while ExxonMobil has described the Stabroek resource base as just under 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels. Readers should treat any single number as an estimate tied to its source, not as proved reserves in the regulatory sense.

3. First Oil in Under Five Years

Commercial production began in December 2019 with Liza Phase 1, about four and a half years after the discovery well. That discovery-to-production interval is roughly half the deepwater industry norm, and the same fast, repeatable FPSO model has driven every expansion since.

The Stabroek System: One Block, One Operator Group

All of Guyana's production comes from the Stabroek block. The block is operated by ExxonMobil Guyana, which holds a 45% interest. Chevron holds 30%, acquired through its purchase of Hess, the original partner, and CNOOC Petroleum Guyana holds 25% (ExxonMobil project releases). Development follows a standard pattern: subsea wells tied back to a floating production, storage and offloading vessel (FPSO), which processes the crude, stores it, and loads it directly onto export tankers offshore. There is no pipeline to shore and no domestic crude refining step in the chain.

Technical Spotlight: Why the FPSO Model Scaled So Fast

The consortium reused a standard vessel design, ordered hulls ahead of final project sanction, and drilled development wells in repeat patterns across similar reservoirs. Yellowtail shows the size of each step: the project cost about US $10 billion, uses six drill centres with up to 26 production and 25 injection wells, and its FPSO is moored in about 1,800 metres of water with storage for about two million barrels and gas treatment capacity of about 450 million cubic feet per day (ExxonMobil; SBM Offshore). Each new vessel therefore adds a quarter of a million barrels per day in a single step, which is why Guyana's production history is a staircase rather than a slope.

Production Trajectory: The Staircase in Numbers

• 2019: First oil in December, from a standing start of zero.
• 2020 to 2023: Production grew by an annual average of 98,000 b/d, making Guyana the third-fastest growing non-OPEC producing country over that period (EIA).
• Early 2024: Output reached 645,000 b/d, all from Stabroek (EIA).
• 2025: Estimated average of about 750,000 b/d for the year. After Yellowtail reached full capacity, production rose to more than 900,000 b/d on average in November 2025 (EIA, December 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook analysis).
• 2026 to 2027: The EIA forecast production growth averaging about 140,000 b/d in 2026, with the Uaru start-up expected to add about 250,000 b/d of capacity and push crude production past 1.0 million b/d by 2027. The Errea Wittu FPSO for Uaru arrived in Guyanese waters in August 2026 ahead of its planned start-up.
• September 2026: Cumulative Stabroek production passed one billion barrels (ExxonMobil).

Exports, Imports, and the Missing Refinery

Guyana exports crude and imports almost all of its refined products. As of 2023, the main destinations for Guyanese crude were the United States (26%), the Netherlands (21%), and Germany (11%), according to the EIA country analysis. The EIA noted in December 2025 that, after initially shipping primarily to the Americas and Europe, Guyana is increasingly exporting crude to markets in Asia. Crude grades are sold by development, with Yellowtail crude marketed as Golden Arrowhead.

The other side of the trade is small but telling. In 2023 Guyana imported about 3.9 million barrels of petroleum products and other liquids, most of it from the United States, with gasoil the largest share at 23% and finished gasoline at 15% (EIA). A country producing more than 900,000 b/d therefore still buys back diesel and gasoline, because the Stabroek system was built to export crude from offshore vessels, not to supply a domestic refining complex. The EIA also notes that port size and freight capacity at Georgetown remain a constraint on fuel trade, with transshipment playing a large role in cargo handling.

Fiscal Terms: The 2016 Agreement and the New Model

Stabroek is governed by the 2016 production sharing agreement between Guyana and the contractor group. Its headline terms are a 2% royalty on production, cost recovery of up to 75% of monthly production for the contractors, and an equal 50/50 split of the remaining profit oil between the state and the contractors. Those terms were signed before the scale of the resource was known, and they are the centre of a continuing national debate about whether Guyana's share is large enough.

Guyana has already changed the terms for new acreage. The model agreement published for blocks awarded from late December 2023 sets a 10% royalty, caps cost recovery at 65%, keeps the 50/50 profit oil split, and applies Guyana's income tax laws. Those newer terms do not apply to Stabroek. For readers comparing fiscal regimes across the region, the contrast with Venezuela and Brazil is instructive: Guyana traded a low early government take for speed, and is now trying to raise the take on everything except the block that made it an oil country.

Risks and Constraints

• Single-block, single-operator concentration: Every producing barrel depends on one block, one operator group, and a small fleet of FPSOs. A long outage on one vessel is a national production event, not a field event.
• The Venezuela controversy: Guyana's maritime space and the Essequibo region are subject to a long-standing territorial controversy with Venezuela, its western neighbour. The dispute predates the oil discoveries but now sits directly over the country's only producing asset and its exploration frontier.
• Price exposure: Guyana's budget and its Natural Resource Fund now move with the crude price. The same staircase that raised revenue quickly can cut it quickly if prices fall before the next FPSOs arrive.
• Absorptive capacity: The EIA records that infrastructure limits, including port capacity and inland transport, are common across the economy. ExxonMobil has said Guyanese make up more than 67% of the country's oil and gas workforce and that more than 2,000 local businesses are engaged in supporting the industry, which indicates both real local content and how much of the supply chain still has to be built.
• Gas handling: Stabroek crude comes with associated gas that the FPSOs must treat, reinject, or use. ONE GUYANA alone was built with about 450 million cubic feet per day of gas treatment capacity, so gas management grows with every new vessel.

2026 to 2030 Strategic Outlook

1. Uaru start-up: The fifth development is the next step on the staircase. Its timing decides whether Guyana crosses 1.0 million b/d in 2027, as the EIA expects.
2. Whiptail and beyond: A sixth development, Whiptail, was approved by the consortium in April 2024, and ExxonMobil has said the Stabroek resource could support up to ten projects. Each sanction adds both capacity and new costs to the fiscal system described above.
3. Exploration outside Stabroek: The resource estimate keeps moving because exploration continues. New blocks awarded under the tougher post-2023 fiscal terms will test whether other operators can repeat the Stabroek result.
4. Regional read-across: Guyana's growth is the northern anchor of a wider Atlantic margin story that includes Brazil's pre-salt and the exploration coast running toward Suriname and the Guianas. Compare the model with our Brazil profile and with the declining Amazon system in Ecuador, which Guyana passed in total output in 2025.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much oil does Guyana produce? The EIA estimated average crude production of about 750,000 barrels per day in 2025, rising to more than 900,000 barrels per day in November 2025 after the Yellowtail project reached full capacity. Guyana produced no crude before December 2019.

Who owns and operates Guyana's oil production? All production comes from the offshore Stabroek block, operated by ExxonMobil with a 45% interest. Chevron holds 30%, acquired through its purchase of Hess, and China's CNOOC holds 25%.

How big are Guyana's oil resources? The EIA put discovered recoverable resources at more than 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels, based on more than 30 discoveries in the Stabroek block since 2015. Published estimates vary by source: Guyana's natural resources minister cited 11.6 billion barrels in August 2024, while ExxonMobil has described the resource base as just under 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels.

Does Guyana refine its own crude? No domestic refining step sits in the Stabroek chain. Crude is processed and stored on FPSOs and loaded directly onto export tankers, while Guyana imports refined products: about 3.9 million barrels in 2023, mostly from the United States (EIA).

When will Guyana pass one million barrels per day? The EIA expects the Uaru development, the fifth Stabroek project with about 250,000 barrels per day of design capacity, to help push crude production past 1.0 million barrels per day by 2027.

Conclusion: A Producer Built in One Decade

Guyana is the clearest current example of how fast a new oil province can be built when one very large discovery is developed with a standard, repeatable design. The verified record is a staircase: zero production in 2019, 645,000 b/d by early 2024, more than 900,000 b/d by November 2025, and one billion cumulative barrels by September 2026. The open questions are no longer geological. They are fiscal, political, and operational: how the 2016 contract's split holds up under public pressure, how the Venezuela controversy is managed, and whether a state built for a pre-oil economy can absorb revenue at this speed. For the global market, Guyana already matters, because its growth barrels are among the few large, low-decline additions to non-OPEC supply this decade.

References

1. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). "Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina support forecast crude oil growth in 2026." Today in Energy, December 17, 2025. Ten-fold production growth 2020 to 2025, estimated 2025 average of 750,000 b/d, more than 900,000 b/d in November 2025, Uaru expectations, and export shift toward Asia. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=66884
2. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). "Guyana becomes key contributor to global crude oil supply growth." Today in Energy, May 21, 2024. Production of 645,000 b/d in early 2024, average growth of 98,000 b/d from 2020 to 2023, recoverable resources of more than 11 billion oil-equivalent barrels, more than 30 discoveries, and 2022 GDP growth of 62.3% (IMF). https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62103
3. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). "Country Analysis: Guyana." Export destinations for 2023 (United States 26%, Netherlands 21%, Germany 11%), petroleum product imports of 3.9 million barrels in 2023, and port and transport constraints. https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/GUY
4. ExxonMobil. "ExxonMobil makes final investment decision on fourth Guyana offshore project (Yellowtail)." April 4, 2022. Project cost of about US $10 billion, capacity of 250,000 b/d, resource of more than 900 million barrels, and 26 production and 25 injection wells.
5. ExxonMobil, reported September 28 to 29, 2026. Cumulative Stabroek production of one billion barrels, four producing developments (Liza Phase 1, Liza Phase 2, Payara, Yellowtail), installed capacity above 900,000 b/d, and partner interests of 45% (ExxonMobil), 30% (Hess, now Chevron), and 25% (CNOOC).
6. ExxonMobil. "ExxonMobil Guyana commences production at Yellowtail development." August 2025. ONE GUYANA start-up ahead of schedule, 250,000 b/d initial average production, two million barrels of storage, about 450 million cubic feet per day of gas treatment, Golden Arrowhead crude name, and local workforce share above 67%.
7. Guyana Ministry of Natural Resources, statement reported August 2024. National resource estimate raised by 600 million barrels to 11.6 billion barrels.